Update 11 a.m. Currently dumping in Truckee with big white flakes so I’m going to drop the predicted snow level to 6000 early.

After a nice weekend we may be in for another taste of winter today. The small storm to our North has trended further South today. That will not only bring the precip closer to us but also bring lower snow levels. This morning’s radar shows the band of precip making its way across Northern CA. The rain/snow should start by mid-morning & could last into the evening. There won’t be much precip, but this morning’s models show .10-.25 inches of total liquid over tahoe. The snow levels are currently around 8500 ft. but as the precip begins to fall the snow levels should drop to around 6000 ft. This should allow a coating to possible a couple of inches to accumulate on the mtns. today, above 7000 ft. Highs should only be in the 40′s in town & 30′s up high.

I saw the models going back & forth with the possibility of a colder storm, but when there isn’t consistency I am going to err on the side of warm & less snow. I’d rather be surprised by a colder snowier storm than to get all hyped about a big snow that doesn’t happen. After sunny mild weather thru next weekend, looking for a change in the pattern next week. Several storms are going to be coming in to our North. Going to have to watch them closely because one is most likely going to come far enough South to give us some snow.

This map show the 3-month precip forecast that the National Weather Service (NWS) just put out. You can see that they are projecting a wet fall & start to winter for all of CA!

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In today’s El Nino update region 1+2 warmed back to an even 0, region 3 stayed the same, region 3/4 warmed a tenth to .9, & region 4 warmed 2 tenths to 1.2. The SOI has also gone very negative the past 2 weeks & the 30 & 90 day average is now negative. There is also a warm Kelvin wave heading across the Pacific. This all suggest further strengthening in the next couple of weeks.

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