After a couple of cold nights the mountains were able to make some snow. Boreal & Mt. Rose will be opening today for a 3 day weekend. Better get on it before it melts away.
Just so the people that send me messages asking me to post everyday know: If there is a delay of a few days it does not mean I am not obsessively studying the weather patterns, it usually means that there is not any weather to speak of in the immediate future so i’m looking long-range for the next snowstorm. This requires several days of watching the model trends vs. the teleconnections to come up with a likely scenario. It would be unreliable just to tell you what the models say everday as they change constantly & can be missing something in the overall pattern. My goal is to keep everyone informed of the next possible storm, but to also not get you excited about a storm that doesn’t happen, i.e. last Saturday.
That being said, the ridge is building off the coast & temps will warm this weekend into the 60′s, and last thru most of next week. The ridge should begin to kick East of us by the end of next week. Some models show our storm for next weekend being cut-off from the jetstream & spinning out in the Central Pacific North of Hawaii. These cut-offs can be our nemesis, if you were reading this blog last winter you’ll remember. This would cause the storm to build a ridge out ahead of it just off the West Coast keeping us dry until the storm is pushed East. I ‘m not totally buying that scenario or how slow the ridge moves East allowing the storm to come onshore into CA I think it could happen sometime around next weekend. When this does finally happen we will get a storm, stay tuned….
Monday will be an exciting post, or exciting if you are a weather nerd like me. Lots of monthly data will be out for October. Should show a wet cold month. Also we will have the El Nino update & most importantly the new PDO number for October. It most likely warmed with the strengthening Nino, but we will be looking for it to go negative by Jan. if we want to come more in line with 1951-52. BA
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