Update 5 p.m.:

Storm is looking nice on Satellite this afternoon with a curl forming off the Washington Coast. This storm has a nice tap across the ocean that is going to bring quite a bit of snow tonight ahead of the Arctic Front. Snow should start later this evening with heavy snowfall overnight and heaviest tomorrow morning with as the Arctic front passes. With the cold air we will have high snow ratios. NWS has upgraded their Winter Storm Warning to 10-20 inches at lake level & 2-3 feet above 7000 ft.

I think it will break down like this on average: 10 inches on the East Shore & East of Truckee; 20 inches for South Lake, North Lake & Truckee; 30 inches above 7000 ft.; and possibly a bit more along the crest. Reno has the best chance of accumulation so far this storm as well with the Arctic front in the morning. Could see 3-6 inches. This will put the resorts around 25% of their annual average, and it’s not even Thanksgiving yet! I knew a week ago when forecasting a storm this big this early in the season no one would believe it, but also it’s been over a decade since it’s happened and over 2 decades since a La Nina this strong in Nov. After a bit of a break in December we should see a bunch more of these type of storm cycles Jan.-March.

From This Morning:

Looks like we got the exact forecast the past 24 hours with the resorts reporting another 12-18 inches, and 6-12 inches at lake level. That brings 3 day totals to 4-6 feet at the resorts & 2-4 feet around the lake & Truckee. Kirkwood is claiming 100 inches already. Thanks to all who have been emailing me totals for the Readers Reports page, keep them coming! We may see a few inches today from passing snow showers before the final storm moves in tonight.

An Arctic front is working it’s way down the West Coast today. That will increase snow showers again tonight and then bring a period of heavy snowfall tomorrow. This storm will be drawing moisture from the ocean so it will bring decent accumulations. Models this morning are all showing 1-1.5 inches of liquid with snow ratios running 15-20:1 at lake level, and 20-25:1 above 7000 ft. with this arctic air. That means another 10-20 inches at lake level and 20-30 inches above 7000 ft. by Tuesday afternoon. That would bring 4 day totals to around 3-5 feet at lake level and 5-8 feet on the mountains. Looks like you have to go back to 1997 to find a storm series this big in November.

The arctic air will make things really cold the rest of the week, especially at night with clear skies and snowpack. The forecasted lows in Truckee & South Lake are below zero Tues-Thurs nights. If the forecast holds that will break records set back in the 1960′s for Truckee and the 1970′s for South Lake. We will start to warm by Friday night as the next storm approaches.

Models are still all over the place with this weekends storm. The teleconnections over the East say we should have blocking form for December, but the strong jet in the West and negative PNA beg to differ. This battle may be what the models are struggling with. Either way we look to get at least light to moderate amounts of snowfall down to lake level by Sunday.

Update tonight on Tomorrow’s storm. Stay tuned…..BA

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