No big changes over the weekend on the storm, just a few minor timing adjustments. The big storm is still on track & will move toward towards the Pac NW coast today where it will bomb out tomorrow with pressures as low as the mid 970′s. That is the pressure of a Cat 2 hurricane, & we will have winds as high as 120mph on the ridge tops & 50mph here in the basin. This is a very strong storm for October, the strongest in years. It is more typical of January & if this storm were cold we’d be talking several feet of snow.
The storm has slowed slightly so any any precip should hold off until tomorrow morning. An initial cold front will start things off tomorrow morning with light precip & snow levels above 7000ft. By mid-day tomorrow the powerful jetstream, that I talked about in the Friday discussion, will slam into the CA coast. This will increase the precip rates & send the snow levels above 8500 ft. or higher. Heaviest rain should be tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Snow levels look to come back down between 7000-8000 ft. Wed. morning as the precip begins to taper off during the day Wed. It looks as if the heaviest precip will be South of Tahoe in the Central Sierral. In the Tahoe area we should see around 2-3 inches of rain & up to 2 feet of snow above 8500-9000 ft., so basically on the highest peaks only. The Crest could see 4-6 inches of rain. In the Central Sierra near Yosemite & Mammoth they could see as much as 4-5 feet of snow above 9000 ft.
The ridge tries to build in behind the storm & brings us a nice weekend with sun & mild temps. A storm will come onshore to our North on Sunday which could weaken the ridge & allow a much weaker but colder storm to affect us next Monday. We will have to watch & see how much the ridge retreats & allows the storm to come South. This storm would potentially have snow levels below 6000 ft.
Looking long range the PNA is trending slightly negative & the Pacific is looking very active. The water North of Hawaii has warmed & so has the water in the NE Pacific slightly. A flat ridge looks to be in place the second half of next weekend into the weekend of the 24th. Storms will be coming onshore to our North during the period. I’m thinking the next chance of a decent storm will be the last week of the month as the ridge starts to retrograde toward the Central Pacific. Still no help from the MJO.
Today’s El Nino update from the NWS isn’t out yet so I will discuss that tomorrow while we all sit indoors keeping warm & dry. I do notice more cooling off the coast of Peru. Sun on a roll now with 11 spotless days. BA
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