A Break in the Action….
The resorts were reporting an inch or two this morning from the light high elevation snow that went through last night. The Resort Totals page is updated to reflect that and the few inches from Monday morning that I didn’t post due to being out of town. Back now just in time for a boring weather pattern for the next 8 or 9 days.
The ridge is going to build off the coast the rest of this week and into the weekend. That will keep us dry and warm us up into the 50′s. The beginning of next week a couple of cold troughs will drop down over the Rockies. That will only have the affect of bringing in some cooler air and dropping highs back into the 40′s.
The next chance of snow continues to look like it will be the weekend of the 1st. A large area of low pressure in the Northeast Pacific will start to push towards the West Coast by the end of next week. The long-range models are all handling it differently. It looks like it could pull in some subtropical moisture making it a decent storm. We’ll be watching that.
Looking at the climate models and teleconnections there is still support for a West Coast trough and storms to continue into mid-December. We are in a weak El Nino/Neutral ENSO state and the CFS v2 forecast model even shows us dipping into weak La Nina territory by February now. That will blow the Winter forecast as it was based on a weak El Nino and now it looks like a Neutral year like 03-04.
You can see the MJO on the right sidebar is forecast to go into phase 1 and 2 over the next couple of weeks. In an ENSO neutral Winter I would expect that the MJO has more of an affect on the pattern when it is active. Phases 1 & 2 composites for December are cold and stormy for CA as you can see below with temps first then precip.
The CFS long-range model agrees on the stormy part for weeks 3 & 4 but not on the temperature part. First 2 are precip and then temps.
Looking at the forecast for the sea surface temps and the long-range climate models for this Winter it looks like the warmer air may be in the West more than the East. If the MJO is active we may have a Winter season that is very similar to this past weekend with the subtropical tap and higher elevation big snows. Sierra cement may live up to its name this season.
Probably less updates this week with the quiet stretch of weather unless there are any big changes. BA
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