Can’t win them all here with the weather in the Sierra. When it comes to expected precip you only really have the models to rely on. As the front approached the Sierra last night it pretty much fell apart and the precip quickly slid South. It’s kind of funny how the first storm the front held together better than expected and we got more snow and this one it fell apart and we got less. Here is the Euro prediction last night right as the storm started.

How could any forecaster see that .5-.75 of liquid and multiply by 15 or 20:1 ratios and not expect anywhere from 6 up to 14 inches of snow? So this morning blame the computer models and not your weathermen, it wasn’t their fault this time. Reports of an inch or two North Lake and 3 or 4 inches South Lake. The resorts are reporting 4-8 inches up top. Got a report from just East of Nevada city though of 7 inches at only 4000′.

Snow Showers will continue today with cold temperatures in place but only expecting light accumulations. We will stay cold through Tuesday with highs only in the 30′s and lows in the teens in the valleys and the 20′s up on the mountains. Snowmaking should continue in full force.

Then as the cut-off lows spins down the coast it will draw up some warmer air Wednesday and Thursday with temps up into the 40′s and close to 50 at lake level on Thursday. We are going to continue to play this back and forth game with the cut-off low as today all the models bring it into Southern CA as a miss to us.

I think that we still have plenty of fun ahead without the cut-off so lets just pretend that it doesn’t exist for now and look at the pattern next weekend. We have another cold storm diving down the coast bringing lots of cold air and this one looks like it could tap some decent moisture from off the ocean. Here is this morning’s Euro for total precip by Monday the 13th. It’s less than what we saw yesterday with the possible merge with the cut-off, but it’s still 2-3 feet of powder.

Some of the other models have the low coming down more over land and not drawing in as much moisture, but either way it looks like another cold and snowy weekend on tap for next weekend. The ridge looks like it will continue to sit out North of Hawaii and it’s stuck there with the ridge in the East and the ridge in Asia. The PNA forecast stays negative as well so I think that we are stuck in this cold and snowy pattern until about Thanksgiving.

This pattern is messing up my later start to Winter theory, but i still think that the end of the month and into December won’t be that impressive and Winter takes over for real in January. Like I said with my winter forecast the main highlight of this winter should be cold and that cold will fluff our snow giving us the possibility of breaking the average snowfall. But that means lots of fluffy powder so although we will get lots of cold and some snow here in November it really won’t help with base building. It should mean that resorts with snowmaking will definitely be open by Thanksgiving with fresh snowfall to go along with it, but i wouldn’t suggest going in the trees.

Looking at the super long-range we should see more cold storms drop down the coast with one the week of the 13th and another by the following weekend and the next right before Thanksgiving. So for now cold and snowy is the word for November. There are no really big storms on the horizon though, I think those will hold off until Winter. Once we hit January and February we should see this same sort of pattern but with colder air and bigger storms.

The reason for the theory we could lose this pattern the end of the month into December is that the teleconnection forecasts are for the NAO & AO to go negative and for the MJO to loop into Phases 8 then 1. That would support blocking to form over Greenland and a trough to build along the East Coast and get stuck there. That usually means the ridge gets stuck over the West. We’ll have to see what happens because the PNA forecast is to stay negative and I would want it to be positive to be confident in the ridge.

Stay tuned…..BA

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