Update Tues PM:
Precip is banking up against the Sierra nicely this afternoon and it’s beginning to spillover into the Tahoe Basin. The temps are currently above freezing at lake level but as the sun goes down the temps will drop and the snow should begin to accumulate.
From This Morning:
The jetstream dropped a little South of us last night which removed the push for the snow over the crest. The precip shield fell apart as it hit the Sierras. I knew things didn’t look right when the winds were out of the East & Southeast, the opposite direction of the direction the moisture was trying to push. Interestingly if you were watching the radar some of the heaviest precip sat East of us over Reno all night but snow levels were above the city.
Squaw & Kirwood reported 4 inches this morning up top. The areas along the crest should have done a little better than the basin. What we lacked in this second storm we could recover in the third one tonight. The storm is tapping some good moisture and liquid amounts have been increasing on the model runs. The 00z GFS last night put a bulls eye on Tahoe of 1.5″ of liquid for tonight, but I’m throwing that one out because I don’t think we are getting 18 inches tonight.
It has come more in line with reality this morning and with the Euro showing .5″-.75″ of liquid by Wednesday, with up to an inch on the crest. That means 6-9 inches above 7000 ft. tonight and up to a foot on the crest. At lake level and in Truckee the snow will be wet again as snow levels are just below 6000 ft., so 3-6 inches seems more likely. We should have better jet support tonight so the precip should hold together much better. The snow showers should increase this afternoon and then the steadier snow will move in this evening and last through the night.
The snow will taper to showers on Wednesday and should begin clear a little by afternoon. Thursday the sun will return and temps will slowly begin to warm into the 50′s and then the 60′s for Friday and Saturday. We have a very weak system that is going to move through Sunday and Monday. The temperatures will cool back into the 50′s and I would expect clouds and sun with a chance of rain showers both days. Snow showers above 7000 ft but not looking for any accumulation other than a dusting.
The ridge looks to retrograde a little further West in the Pacific the beginning of next week towards 160-170w. That will allow the ridge over the Southwest to try and expand Northward, but it will also allow another low to dive down the coast. That storm would push inland around Wed/Thurs next week. My thinking right now is that the ridge building in from the South wins out and the storm stays to mostly to our North. As the warm air surges North we should have temperatures warm up pretty quickly going into Memorial Day weekend.
The ridge will begin pushing Eastward towards our coast in the Pacific next week. Some models do suggest a storm sneaks in over Memorial Day weekend just ahead of the ridge moving in. Looking at the teleconnections everything points towards a ridge and dry weather in the long-range. Look at the 6-10 day forecast for precip on the sidebar, it shows below average precip days 6-10. I would think that ridges will win out over troughs in the long-range. Super long-range models do show a nice period of warm and dry weather the last few days of May into the beginning of June, but the MJO forecast shows it possibly circling back around into phase 7. That could mean some unsettled weather in June.
Stay tuned for any updates on tonight’s storm…BA
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