BIG change in the models over the past 24 hrs. I saw the noon model yesterday and thought it was just a fluke, but it has been consistently stronger with tomorrow’s storm all the way until this morning. First of all the storm is going to come further South so we will get more snow. Secondly, the storm will split as a piece of the storm slowly moves down the CA coast keeping snow showers going into the day Saturday over Tahoe. The snow would start during the day tomorrow and last possibly into the day Saturday. Latest precip estimates have up to .75 inches of liquid over the Tahoe Basin. This would mean 6-12 inches over the mountains. This flip in the models happened fast, so I want to watch it one more day. Tomorrow morning I will put out a final snowfall forecast.

Also, the last few model runs are catching onto the undercutting of the ridge starting next weekend. This morning’s GFS model had us getting obscene amounts of precip for a week straight. Hopefully this is the beginning of the pattern change becoming a reality. Stay tuned…….BA

Filed under: Home

Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!