A Snainy Weekend….
I’ve been re-running the forecast models over and over this morning trying to piece together all of the details for the upcoming 7 days. It’s going to be a very active pattern with lots of details to iron out.
Not a lot of changes from yesterday with the biggest change being the amount of moisture that the cut-off low is picking up and is going to bring inland on Saturday. Total liquid amounts have increased by about an inch. Also, the trend is a little further South again for Monday and Tuesday with the jetstream. The GFS still keeps most of the moisture to our North but the European brings in an additional inch of liquid.
The snow levels will remain marginal with Lake Level being around 6,200 feet and the snow levels for Friday night into Saturday being in the 6000-7000 ft range and the same for Mon-Tue. That makes the forecast above 7000 ft easier but below that harder as the exact snow levels make all the difference at your house. Several feet of snow are on tap above 7000 ft.
The precip should start as light snow as the atmosphere moistens lowering the snow levels on Friday. Friday night into Saturday the snow levels come up just above lake level and by Saturday morning we could see 6-9 inches above 7000 ft with up to a foot on the crest.
Heavier precip moves in Saturday and then possibly a break later in the day into the evening. By Sunday morning we could see a doubling of what fell the prior 24 hours above 7000 ft. Below 7000 ft. several inches down to nothing are possible depending on where the snow levels setup.
Saturday night into Sunday a burst of heavier snow arrives with the cold front and snow falling all the way down to lake level. We could see 6-9 inches at lake level with up to another foot above 7000 ft. by Monday morning. That brings the 3 day totals to 18-27 inches above 7000 ft. and up to 3 feet along the crest.
Then we’ll have to see which forecast model verifies for Mon-Tue. If the GFS is right then we could be dry until next Wed. If the European verifies then we could see several more inches above 7000 ft. Mon-Tue and another foot along the crest. We will be on the South side so snow levels will come back up a little.
There is agreement that we could see a quick shot of snow at the end as a cold front tries to push the precip further South next Wed, and that Thanksgiving should be dry. Not much agreement beyond that. The Northeast Pacific looks to remain active through the end of the month and the PNA negative. We could see another storm the weekend after Thanksgiving and another before the end of the month. Let’s just get through this weekend first.
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