All Sytems Are Go…..
Literally….I didn’t post yesterday because nothing has changed in the short term, long term, and extra long-range. We have the strong cold front and snow moving in on Friday. It looks like 2-4 inches at lake level with 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. and 4-8 inches along the crest by Friday night. I am not seeing where we could possibly reach a foot like the NWS is saying.
Friday night it will get really cold with lows down in the teens and maybe single digits in the valleys. We may see some lingering snow showers and where we do it will be around 30:1 snow ratios so any snow that falls will pile quick. Even a tenth of an inch of precip would be 3 inches so with a fairly dry storm we could see a few extra inches Friday night.
We have a break over the weekend with cold air in place and highs only in the 20′s. For resorts with snowmaking we will have around the clock snowmaking conditions. We will begin to warm slightly Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next much bigger storm for Thanksgiving. Warm air advection precip ahead of the front could start as early as Wednesday with snow levels just above lake level.
Then we have a nice storm that is going to pick up a good amount of moisture and send in a fairly strong jetstream on Thursday. It’s too early to talk totals but this storm should definitely be the biggest so far this season. The GFS has another decent storm right behind it for the following weekend while some other models dry us out.
It is looking like the predictions of a flip at the end of the month could come true. The NAO and AO continue to forecast more negative for the end of the month and now the PNA forecasts are more positive. Looking at the analog years of La Nina and conditions like we have had in November with a warm East Coast and cold West Coast, the December following flips to warm on the West Cost and Cold in the East. This may temporarily put Winter on hold.
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