Update 9 AM:
Storm has really slowed down and it now looks like the snow will not start until this evening. That will make it colder though so we will have a little more fluff.
From This Morning:
By Tahoe standards the storm today is just a dusting as is any storm that doesn’t drop at least a foot of snow. It will once again bring us lots of cold as we continue the theme of what should highlight this Winter, and that is lots of cold. Don’t worry snow lovers there are some bigger storms that could arrive for the Thanksgiving holiday. We just have to watch to make sure they don’t throw us the splitter.
The jetstream providing the gusto for the storm today is weakening as we speak which has slowed the cold front a bit. Snow will move in today and the temperatures will drop with the colder air. With the weakening of the storm I am going to pull back the totals an inch or two from the previous post. Expecting 1-3 inches at lake level, 2-4 inches above 7000 ft, and 3-6 inches along the crest by tonight.
We still could see some snow showers behind the front tonight and pick up an additional inch or two by morning. I think the snow showers will be much weaker though with the weaker storm. Then it stay cold over the weekend with highs only in the 20′s Saturday and 30′s on Sunday.
There is a cut-off low moving down off the coast over the weekend. Almost all of the models keep it off shore but the Euro keeps showing it coming down over land and bringing us a few more inches of snow. That scenario is not likely but we will have to keep our eyes on it over the weekend.
Thigs are quiet to start next week with temperatures warming back up into the 40′s. The ridge out in the Pacific is going to retrograde back out to around 150-160w which will allow the trough to dig off the West Coast. A large area of low pressure is going to setup in the Northeast Pacific and drive a cold front and strong jet towards the West Coast. This has been advertised by the models for a while now and it makes sense with the position of the teleconnections.
There will be a strong storm approaching the West coast on Thanksgiving bringing snowfall but a few model runs have hinted as a possible splitting. This can happen when the ridge to our East over the Rockies is a strong one and hard to move. The storms will sometimes split as they hit the back of the ridge. The GFS did show this but today is back on track showing the strong jetstream making a direct hit on us. Either way we should be picking up snow but a split could turn a couple feet into a couple inches.
Right behind the Thanksgiving day storm is another strong storm that would not split since it is right on the heels of the first storm. This storm should push in sometime on Sunday and bring us more cold and snow. Stay tuned because the potential exists for these two storms to bring significant snowfall over the 4 day holiday period and I will be trying to fine tune the track and snowfall amounts all week.
After that it looks like my theory is beginning to show itself in the models and the teleconnections. The PNA forecast continues to trend positive while the NAO and AO forecasts trend negative by the end of the month. This would create a flip in the pattern to warmer and drier period to start December. The models are beginning to show ridging along the coast toward the end of the month. Stay tuned….BA
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