Update 6 PM:

Might be more than a dusting this time. These storms that are cut-off from the main flow have mind of their own so you have to watch them closely. We have had several already this season as we continue to get a split flow developing. This is really hard as a forecaster because these storms do not follow the jetstream and can change course at any time almost like a hurricane. If this pattern continues you are going to have to give me a break on the critiques this Winter.

The storm is looking really nice on radar this evening. Total liquid amounts are in the .25 – .50 range by Sunday afternoon which is similar to the forecast for last night’s storm. The thing is that it’s colder to start the storm tonight than last night and snow is already on the ground. The snow:water ratios will be up to 15:1 at lake level tonight and 20:1 above 8000 ft. That makes me feel like we could see slightly more snow than last night especially along the crest and South of the lake.

Last night some of the resorts along the crest only picked up 3-4 inches while some in Tahoe picked up 7 or 10. With this storm the heaviest snow will be to the West so the crest should have a better shot at picking up the higher end of the forecast. That would be 6-10 inches along the crest and then 3-6 inches in the basin with 4-8 inches above 7000 ft.

Also, I had a chance to look at some more model runs for later in the week. The consensus is still for the Thanksgiving Day storm to split with the heaviest part of the storm going to our South. We still pick up light snowfall on Thursday from the first piece and more on Friday from the second wave to our North. Then that clears the way for the bigger storm next Sunday that would hold together. The Thanksgiving storm could still hold together so we will watch that.

We need a big storm because after that things are really falling in line with my long-range outlook I’ve been forecasting. The ridge should build off the coast as the trough moves into the East. It should get quiet around here into the first week of December. The good news is that the NAO forecasts are pulling back from showing negative so there is less of a chance of blocking in the North Atlantic. That means the Eastern trough can move off the coast and not get stuck and more troughs can move into the Eastern Pacific. BA

From This Morning:

It looks like the Northwest corner of Tahoe picked up the most snow overnight. The cold front fell apart so the snow was showery and spotty so some areas picked up more than others close by. The resorts in the NW corner of the lake are reporting anywhere from 4-10 inches. Local reports from readers are all around 1-3 inches. All the numbers are on the Resort Totals and Reader Reports pages.

The low you can see spinning down the coast is trending further East so it looks like we will see some more snow tonight and tomorrow. Most of the models had the track just to our West keeping us dry but the storm shifted a little today. The European model was consistent with this the past few days but was the exception. Total liquid is very similar to last nights storm so I’m expecting similar amounts by Sunday afternoon, maybe a couple inches more with this one.

More later as the site I use for weather models is down right now. BA

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