A little more clarity this morning as models are back to their original ideas on the storm. Turns out the two model runs yesterday were just a fluke in bringing the storm more to our North and inland. Snow tonight coming just in time to freshen up the base for Christmas!

Currently their are light rain/snow showers around the area due to instability in the atmosphere between the two systems. Snow levels this morning are around 7000 ft. with temps in the mid to upper 30′s below 7000 ft. The cold front is currently moving onshore near the Northwest coast of CA. It should arrive sometime this afternoon bringing rapidly falling snow levels and heavy snow. Looking like the heaviest snow is from this afternoon until around midnight. This will be similar to the two storms in the end of November where a cold front blasted through dropping 6+ inches of snow within a 6 hour period. Total snow accumulations look to be 3-6 inches at lake level and 6-9 inches above 7000 ft., with up to a foot on the crest. Spotty snow showers may persist into Tuesday with the storm slowly moving away. Light additional accumulations are possible.

When looking long-range you can’t just look at models for your forecast. You have to learn the patterns of the atmosphere and have a good idea of what should happen, and then use the models as proof that you are right when a majority of them start to agree on what you think will happen. The problem the past week is that i have a good idea of what should start to happen next weekend into the following week but the models have not come into any sort of agreement or consistency.

Starting to see a little more agreement this morning which is encouraging. We should start to see moisture approach the CA coast by Saturday night associated with the next storm. Right now it looks as if the bulk of the moisture will come into Southern CA on Sunday but will come far enough North to start bringing us snow. Subsequent storms through next week look to have a better shot at coming in further North towards Tahoe. Hoping that the models continue to catch on to this pattern, stay tuned……BA

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