Winds are picking up today ahead of the cold low pressure that is going to work its way down the coast the next couple of days. Today it’s going to be somewhat nice with temps in the 60′s at lake level even though it will be breezy.

Let’s take a look at the April numbers and then get back to the forecast. April was another cold and wet/snowy month. The water supply is looking amazing. The May 1st snowpack was at 208% of average for the Tahoe Basin & 188% for the Truckee River Basin.

The Tahoe Basin saw 111 percent of average precip in April while the Truckee River Basin saw 94 percent of average. That brings the total for the whole water year through the end of September to 139% & 124% respectively. So a 5 month drought and we are still ahead.

The average temperature from the Truckee airport was 5.4 degrees below average for the month. That’s 11 out of the last 12 months below average. I’m expecting May to be around average and then maybe some above average months this summer.

Colder air begins to filter into the area tonight. This is going to trigger snow showers on the mountains tonight but very light. This should continue tomorrow as snow levels continue to come down and temperatures are about 20 degrees colder than today which will create an unstable atmosphere and trigger more showers. Highs should only be in the 30′s on the mountains tomorrow and the 40′s at lake level.

The best shot at some steadier precip looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning as the core of the low and the coldest air moves in. All together for the entire for the entire 48 hours period through Monday the most snow looks to be maybe 3-6 inches above 8,000 feet in total. Most of this will just be light showers with a dusting above 7000ft. At lake level we could see a dusting Sunday night.

We begin to dry out and warm up on Tuesday and then we are back into the 60′s at lake level by Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge is out in the Central Pacific this week and it actually moves back a little to around 160w. Another low pressure is going to move into the Northeast Pacific and then the models almost all show it being a cutoff low off our coast by next weekend.

This low has a lot of cold air as well. If this happens we will have to watch when exactly it pushes inland. The GFS shows quite a bit of precip with this storm. We could see one last dose of measurable snow next Sunday or Monday even at the lake. The Amgen Tour may have a little snow to ride through.

After that the ridge should rebuild in the Eastern pacific for a return of normal temps and drier weather. Stay turned…BA

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