It’s time to start posting as the weather is already becoming interesting. Lot’s of troughing along the West coast with Washington already getting hit with a storm last weekend, and measurable snow fell in Utah. Check out the weather charts page as it has been updated to reflect the August temps & 3 month NOAA precip outlook.

First I want to go over the numbers from August. August was both a cold and wet month in the Tahoe Basin. August was 5.4 degrees below average. This continues our cool down thanks to the cold Pacific. This year is averaging 3.4 degrees below average, 2.8 degrees below average the past 3 years, and 1.7 degrees below average now over the past decade.

Thanks to thunderstorms in August some locations picked up big amounts, like South Lake Tahoe picking up 588% of their August average. The Tahoe Basin was 119% of average bringing the water year total to 90% of average with one more month to go. The Truckee River Basin had only 36% of average precip bringing to the water year total to 96% of average.

La Nina conditions are getting stronger and I am starting to like the winter of 73-74 the best as I look for a year most similar to this one. 73-74 came on the heels of a strong El Nino year with a decent snowfall, it was a strong La Nina, and it was in the middle of an overall cold Pacific cycle. We have all of the same right now going into this winter. That wasn’t the biggest snow year on record but it was slightly above average. Even with an average or slightly below average winter precip wise we can be above average for snowfall because of the colder temps.

The La Nina conditions have the greatest affect in the winter, but records show precip becoming above average in Northern CA as early as November. The difference between above and below average during La Nina can ride right along I-80. In 73-74 even LA was above average, but during the strong La Nina of 75-76 Eureka received 87% of average and San Francisco only 37%. A dry winter is a possibility, but 75/76 was the only dry strong La Nina year and it was the only one that came on the heels of a La Nina year.

Hope you enjoyed the warm weather on Friday as it could be the last for while or until next summer. A cold front came through this weekend and another stronger one is on the way for mid-week. Wednesday night the snow levels will drop to 7500 ft. and we could see some snow showers that leave a dusting on top of the mountains. Highs only in the 40′s & 50′s by Thursday, with slight warming into next weekend. More shots of cold air and showers are on tap right through the middle of the month.

We may have cold water along the equator and off the coast, but across the North Pacific there is some warmer than average water that could give a boost to the early season jet stream. 07/08 featured several inches in a storm the first week of October. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that this October if the ridge doesn’t set up too close to the coast…..BA

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