August Recap….Stay for the Summer
Another cool month to tack on to this year at 3.2 degrees below average in Truckee. We have yet to have a month above average this year. The average temperature was 57 degrees with the warmest day hitting 84. That is why they say, “you come here for the Winters but you stay for the Summers”. It is also why, at 43 degrees, Truckee’s average annual temp is only 2 degrees shy of making the top ten coldest locations list. Over the past 12 months however, we have only averaged 40 degrees.
August was a dry month in what could be the start of several below average months as we go into the fall. The Tahoe Basin averaged 5% of average precip in August and the Truckee River Basin 8%. That puts us at 137% & 143%of the annual average respectively with September being the last month of the water year.
We may actually have a somewhat wet month in September depending on what happens with our weather this week. We are going to finally have a little bit of activity. We have high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and over the Rockies, and in the middle the models are showing low pressure forming. The low is forecast to slowly drift from Nevada towards SoCal and could pick up some monsoon moisture from the deep Southwest. That means we should have clouds and a chance of thunderstorms and showers from Thursday into the beginning of next week. This will be warm moisture so no chance of our first dusting yet.
Also, in August the ocean temps started to rise in the Eastern Pacific. The temps are still below average and have been for a while now, but we will have to watch what happens here going into the Fall. If they warm into positive territory it would take away our weak La Nina wild card of having cold water along the coast creating troughs and bringing more precip than is normal in a weak La Nina. This is why I am thinking an extended Fall and a fairly dry Fall.
I keep having a feeling we may end up having a year very similar to the La Nina season of 07/08. Winter doesn’t start until the second half of December, goes gang-busters during the heart of Winter with cold and snow, and then cuts off at the end of March. This was my thought this time last year before the La Nina came on strong in the Fall and then I switched to the 125% of average forecast. Where the water temps are in the ENSO region right now however, La Nina has no chance of being the strong going into the Winter. We will have to continue to monitor the water temps.
Just to get you into the spirit, below is a shot from last week of the first snow at Banff Ski Area in Alberta, Canada. There were also reports of snow down to 6500 ft. in Montana. I’m starting to get excited for Winter now. Stay tuned….BA
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