Back to Positive PNA Pattern….
That’s not a good thing. You can see up on the top bar we are now back in positive territory again. That tends to be associated with West Coast ridging. If you click on it you can see it better but you can see that it was negative in November when we had storms, and then positive until going negative the past week when we had storms again. This was the case last season as well as the Positive PNA showed up for the 6 week dry spell in Jan before going negative again in mid-February.
We can get storms with a +PNA pattern if the ridge is positioned far enough North to allow storms to cut underneath. The storms do tend to be mild though with higher snow levels. The models suggest this could happen the 2nd week of February. Until then we look to be dry with maybe a quick dusting Sunday night or Tuesday night as storms brush by to the North. The MJO forecast on the right sidebar does look interesting but it hasn’t made it to phase 7 without falling apart in a long time.
This is becoming a drought year and if we keep down this road it may become the driest moderate La Nina with a cold PDO season we have ever had. Those seasons normally average out to average snowfall which is why I forecasted that for the season in the Fall. We are doing better than the driest year on record however. Here is a look at the current snowpack analaysis. You can see the pink line for this current year is ahead of the driest year of 76-77. We are just a little behind last season in green, ha.
Don’t forget that from mid-February on last season we picked up 500 inches. When we have these dry spells I am not just saying oh well I’ll just check back in a week. I don’t post everyday because there are only so many ways to say no snow for 2 weeks, but I am working just as hard as ever trying to find something positive in the pattern that can get us back on track with the snow.
As most of you know I am not a meteorologist. I switched majors halfway through school after a trip to some third world countries including Madagascar made me want to study Economics. Now as an accountant by day and snow obsessed weather hobbyist by night I like to call myself a snowcaster. I have spent my time over the years focusing in on one thing with the weather and that is being able to forecast when big snows will come (specifically to Tahoe). I will mis-state things sometimes but overall my goal isn’t to write a term paper here, it’s to write an easy to understand discussion on what I have found during my research of when we might see snow again.
I have had the privilige since starting to this blog to talk with and gain insights from lots of meteorologists around the country. I am excited now to be teaming up with one who is just as snow obsessed as I am and has written a similar blog in Colorado called Coloradopowderforecast.com. He is meteorologist Joes Gratz and he has started a new site called opensnow.com. This site will bring together meteorologists and snow forecasters from each ski region to write a daily brief blog on the upcoming snow chances. It also has a snowfall forecast by day for the resorts in each area.
I will be updating the snowfall forecasts for the Lake Tahoe resorts and writing a short blog on the upcoming snow chances for Tahoe in the CA section. I believe this site will compliment my long discussions with more a more condensed “when is it going to snow next in 60 seconds or less” plus added bonus of a quick look at potential snowfall at each resort for the coming week. It will also allow me to have the resource of several meteorogists to discuss the weather patterns with and to bounce ideas off of.
I hope that you will all visit the new site if you don’t already. I will continue to do my long-winded rants and long-range forecasts and theories on this site as always. I hope to setup some icons linking between the sites for quicker access. The lack of snow has allowed a little more time for setting this up, but I am dying for the next big dumps. I will be the first to let you know when there is something on the horizon. Stay tuned….BA
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