The ridge is building back in for a week of warm and dry conditions once again. It’s not uncommon to have Indian Summer conditions leading up to a La Nina winter. The one thing that is not that common is how strong the MJO is becoming on it’s way towards the Western Pacific. Models have the ridge moving next weekend which would start to open the storm door. Not seeing the models show any big storms yet hitting the West Coast, but as the MJO continues on it’s course they should start to pick up on the possibility of some storms. Currently they have the ridge building back in as a deep trough and cold air dive into the East Coast.

It’s still really early, but we will need some cold air to get the snow guns firing next month. Right now the multivariate ENSO index, which measures equatorial sea surface temps and pressures is at it’s lowest point since the 1950′s La Nina which is one of our go to years. The La Nina conditions continue to strengthen as the ocean temps continue to cool. This should mean that cold temps will not be a problem this winter. I know everyone got excited with the rogue storm this past week, but we still have some time till winter sets in for real. Stay tuned as we see where the weather goes in response to the MJO. BA

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