Update:

I won’t be able to post in the morning but I wanted to mention that the models today and this evening are going towards a wetter scenario on Sunday. Odds are increasing for a small accumulation, maybe in the 3-6 inch range. Update later tomorrow.

From this Morning:

I am on the phone with family in NJ yesterday talking about the impending blizzard of 6-12 inches and they are acting like it’s no big deal. When I grew up there we would wait 5 years at a time for one storm that big and it was a huge deal. But after last year’s hammering of several storms dumping feet of snow and this being their 3rd storm already this year to drop a foot, they are used to it now. My dad even bought a snowblower last winter and now he looks like a genious while 10 years ago his neighbors would have laughed at him.

Meanwhile here in Tahoe people are getting all hyped over a forecast on Sunday for a 20% chance of snow showers. Something that would normally be laughed at or ignored here. I feel like I’m living in someone cruel joke today. I can understand that you may be excited about the possibility of a couple inches of snow on Sunday after 4 weeks of no snow, but seriously get a grip.

The storm track for the Sunday storm actually has been trending further West the past 24 hours as the ridge may retrograde as far back as 140w on Saturday. That means a little more moisture and a little more cold, but the latest runs have it dropping down the west side of the Sierra. If we are really lucky it may come across Tahoe but the most we would probably see would be 3-6 inches. That would helpful for a nice refreshening so we should watch the track over the next few days. Temps will also drop into the 20′s and 30′s Sunday and Monday.

Then it’s back to ridge city next week as we are still in a postive phase PNA pattern. 2nd week of February still looks like a pattern change week. The models have been fairly consistent now for a few days with the ridge moving to a position in the Gulf of Alaska that week which would allow cold from the North and the jet from the Pacific to come underneath. Teleconnection forecasts our lining up on our side as well with a -PNA/+NAO pattern forecasted going towards mid-month. Hopefully the second half of February can redeem our 5-6 week snow drought. We could see some storms start to move in as soon as the 2nd week of the month, but I don’t see that on any models yet.

Don’t forget what I told you a couple of weeks ago. We didn’t receive this much snowfall to date the past 3 years until February, and the last big 600 inch season of 05/06 not until March. Stay tuned, stay positive……BA

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