Update 12 am:

models have more moisture with the storm in tonight’s runs, but have us just on the Northern edge. It could be as close as 3-6 inches for North lake and 6-12 inches for South Lake. Just the slightest shift north or South on Sunday will make the biggest difference, we’ll just have to watch as the storm happens. Mammoth with get the brunt of the storm with up to 3 feet of snow.

Previous Discussion:

This storm is producing suprising amounts of snow this morning. There is already about 5 inches of snow at 7,000 ft. as of 7:30 a.m. Looking at the radar it looks like we should have at least a couple more hours of steady snow & then we should see more scattered type snow showers the rest of the day. Looks like we already picked up about 2″ in Truckee and it is still snowing as the warmer air from the storm overriding the cold air in place is triggering steady snowfall. This is 20:1 ratio really light snow that piles up fast even though not much moisture is in this storm. We should see the steady snow taper to snow showers later this morning with 3-5 inches at lake level & 4-8+ inches on the mountains accumulated by then.

This overrunning moisture is more than what was thought yesterday morning as with a cut-off low it is hard to predict the exact track and dynamics. I have seen storms dump 2 feet just from warmer air ahead of the storm being lifted when it hits the really cold dense air in place which causes snowfall. Models tend to be clueless when it comes to totals with this type of snow. Snowfall with cold fronts or low pressures, like we will deal with tomorrow, are much easier to predict snowfall as you can measure how much moisture they have associated with them. The overrunning creates its own moisture.

Snow showers will continue through the weekend with snow showers tonight & the chance of steady snow developing again tomorrow morning. The exact track of the cut-off low is still going to be hard to predict due to it being a cut-off from the main flow & wandering down the coast. If it goes a little South of us we could just see a couple more inches tonight and tomorrow. If it comes in further North we could pick up another foot. Right now we will go in the middle and say another 4-8 inches tonight and Sunday for a weekend total of 8-16 inches on the mountains. At lake level another 3-5 inches for a total of 6-10 for the weekend. I have never seen us get lucky this many times this early in a season. Stay tuned for updates as we track the storm. BA

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