Update 10 pm:
Precip ahead of the storm is already approaching the area. We may see snow start to accumulate by morning especially on the crest. Models are also coming in a little stronger with the storm this evening. That just supports my forecast from earlier because I was thinking we would get more than the models were saying this morning. Still looking like 10-15 inches at lake level with 15-20 inches above 7000 ft. and 20-25+ inches along the crest by Wednesday afternoon. See you in the morning. BA
From This Morning:
It is a beautiful morning up here on the mountain with not a cloud in the sky and a fresh coating of snow from the weekend. There were some additional snow showers that hung around the crest last night and brought a few more inches to the resorts located along the Western crest. 2-5 inches are being reported with Sugarbowl reporting 8 more inches as the snow showers hung around right on I-80 West of Donner Summit for a while last night. That brings their storm total to 20 inches for the Sat. night – Sun. night time frame, and everyone else in the 9-14 inch range. I updated the Resort Totals page to show the percentage of annual average season to date. The annual averages are what is claimed by each resort. Some of the totals year to date are from resorts that show their year to date amounts or even have daily tracking sheets like Squaw & Northstar. Others like Alpine & Sugarbowl are from my tracking sheet as I write down the 24 hour totals reported everyday. They should be pretty close as most of the resorts West of the lake are pretty close in totals and are all around 60% of their annual average season to date. Pretty impressive since we have only gotten 1 small storm since true winter started last week.
We have an interesting storm shaping up for tomorrow into Wednesday. If you look at the satellite to the right you can see the nice subtropical moisture tap from down near Hawaii feeding into the jetstream that is approaching the coast. This will initially bring heavy precip and rising snow levels tomorrow night before the Northern branch of the jetstream and a cold front quickly come down from the North lowering snow levels and pushing the heavier precip to our South. This will be very cold air so the atmosphere will be unstable and snow showers should continue into Wednesday. The snow levels look to come up to right around lake level before falling. The Euro is much more aggressive with the spillover of the precip into the Tahoe Basin than other models are, and I like its thinking. Right now it is looking like 10-15 inches where it stays all snow near lake level, with 15-20 inches above 7000 ft. and up to 2 feet along the crest by Wednesday night. In Truckee and at lake level if the storm starts as rain initially it would cut back on totals. Because of that Truckee may be in the 6-10 inch range. We will tweak these amounts again tomorrow morning.
Behind the storm there is lots of cold air with temps in the teens down to lake level Thursday and Friday, and overnight lows in the single digits to below zero in Martis Valley. The ridge is going to scoot a little closer to the coast by the weekend so the next storm will slide down the coast. Right now it looks weak and the exact track will determine whether we see a few inches or nothing for New Years.
After that the ridge sits around 140w and expands Northward keeping the storm track to our North for about 10 days. We should see normal temps and at most a dusting as storms hit the Pacific NW. We are transitioning to a true La Nina pattern now as the strong La Nina takes over the pattern. Around the 10th of January we may see the ridge take its classic La Nina position out around 160w. We will see the return of the storm train as a trough digs off the West Coast and pulls moisture from across the Pacific underneath of the ridge. Right now I am expecting the middle of January and beyond to be quite stormy. Keep your fingers crossed. BA
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