Break It Down…..
Update 5 P.M.
I am not seeing the low qpf that the NWS is seeing. The NAM is the wettest with 1.25-1.5 inches of liquid, but the Euro is also at 1-1.25, and the GFS is a little wetter this afternoon at .75-1 inch. Going to stick with 12-18 inches above 7000 ft. Maybe a bit higher on the Western Crest and maybe 9 inches East of the lake. Lake level is still a gamble based on how fast the snow levels drop. If it were all snow I would say 8-16 inches but it will start as rain. Will go with 4-10 inches, 4 being below 6,000 in Truckee and on the East Shore and 10 on the West Shore and hills. Models continue to come in wetter for the weekend and next week. We are in the 6-8 inch range now for the 6 day period of Friday-Wednesday. Pretty much an average of a foot a day on the mountains. Best chance for snow levels to come up looks to be Saturday morning briefly and then down to lake level for most of the event. Not as warm as the rumors in town. That could change but keep your fingers crossed.
From This Morning:
Over the weekend my posts weren’t very detailed. I do that when I have stated that a big pattern change or storm series is coming and nothing changes. I spend the time studying the patterns and computer models to try and pinpoint the details. When things don’t change like they didn’t all weekend the confidence grows and it’s time to break down the details and talk snow amounts, since I know that is all you care about anyway.
All you have to do is just scroll down the sidebar to see the jetstream taking aim at us for at least a week, the 5 day precip at over 2″ of liquid, and the 10 day precip forecast with a bullseye on Tahoe. Those are all signs that we have some big storms coming.
First storm tomorrow is going to slap us back to reality as it returns winter temps and snow. Liquid amounts looked light in the .5-.75 inch range all weekend until this morning. Then the Euro and NAM decided to slow the storm down and add an inch of liquid to the forecast. I would just double the snow totals except for the fact that the GFS, one of the main models, is still showing the lighter amounts. Will have to watch today to see, it usually doesn’t change this much or have that much of a difference between models this close to the storm. The snow will start Tuesday morning and it may start initially as rain right at lake level. The main cold front with the heavy precip moves through in the afternoon and evening. For now I will split the models and then update the forecast later today. That would be 12-18 inches above 7000 ft. At lake level it depends on how fast the snow levels fall. Will go with 6-12 inches for now.
Then we get a break Wednesday and Thursday before the jetstream takes aim and we get a nice long storm series. The storm should move in during the day Friday. Once it starts we look to get a nice 5-6 days of several storms riding along the jet into CA. The main concern when dealing with a strong jet across the Pacific like this is snow levels. A shift of the jet slightly to the North or South can have a big affect on snow levels. Models have been pretty consistent all weekend and today of bring the snow levels close to lake level with some of the storms and then dropping them well below lake level behind each storm. It looks to me as of right now that the majority of the precip will fall as snow at lake level.
We are looking at total liquid amounts in the 4-6 inch range Saturday – Thursday. Above 7000 ft. that is an easy 4-6+ feet, this time it won’t be fluff either. At lake level the potential is there for several feet if the snow levels cooperate. Worst case I don’t see the snow levels ever going higher than 7000 ft. so the resorts will get buried next week. I Will be analyzing this big snow event everyday this week.
Looks like we could a break for Christmas weekend as the jetstream returns North of us. Stay tuned…….BA
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