Update 1 PM:

The new 12z GFS shows a second wave with this storm coming in on Sunday afternoon bringing an additional .25 inches of liquid. That could be another 3 inches on top of whatever falls tonight. That would bring the totals forecast up a little to 6-10 inches at lake level and 9-14 inches above 7000 ft. especially on the crest. It is also back on board with the Euro in showing the possibility of 2-3 feet next weekend. I’ve been working today on the new Tahoe Weather iphone app that will launch soon.

From This Morning:

At 4 a.m. the temperature at the Truckee airport was 7 degrees. I saw that coming with the fresh snow on the ground, clear skies, and light winds. Advisories are already in place from the NWS for the next round of snow tonight. Still keeping a wary eye on the cut-off low for next week, a total miss or several feet?

I have the Reader Reports page updated and ready to add tonights snowfall to the totals. About half of the resorts did not report yesterday. It was a powder day for Boreal’s opening yesterday. Not much change in the forecast for tonights storm. The NWS is doubling their lake level forecast with this storm even though the total precip amounts forecasted are about the same. It still looks to me like everyone will get around the same amounts as the last storm, doubling the amounts on the ground by Sunday morning.

The snow should hold off until after the sun sets today except maybe along the crest. The heaviest snow will come fast and hard again this evening with the passage of the cold front. The snow showers should linger into the day on Sunday before clearing begins. It is going to look and feel very wintry on Sunday with 6 inches or more on the ground East of the lake and East Truckee, and a foot or more West side and the higher elevations. The crest could have up to 2 feet by Sunday for the 3 day total.

The ridge that has been sitting out in the Pacific around 150w 40n is going to surge North and cut the next storm off from the jetstream. That will create a cut-off low that will spiral down the West coast during the week. You can see this nicely on the jetstream map to the right on the sidebar, see the circle that forms off the coast? The question has been when and where does this low come inland. I could get you excited one day and disappointed the next as the models change their mind becuase since these storms are cut off from the main flow and nothing is steering them it’s almost impossible to forecast their path.

Currently we have a split decision with the GFS currently bringing the low into Southern CA and missing us and the Euro and Japanese models bringing it in to Central CA. We just have to wait and watch this very closely. The when seems clearer as there is another cold front and weak storm very similar to the ones this weekend dropping down the coast next weekend that will push the cut-off low inland starting Friday. So if the current GFS is right and the low comes in to the South we just get more cold and light snow. If some other runs of the GFS from yesterday and the other models are right then we could have a merge of the cut-off low, which will have a lot of moisture by then, and the cold front from the North right over Tahoe next weekend. That scenario would look like the map below from last night’s Euro.

Um….that is 2-3+ feet of snow! But PLEASE don’t run around town saying BA said we’re are getting 2-3 feet next weekend. It could be a total miss but it could also come together just right like the Euro is showing and the Euro has a better track record in the long-range during the Fall. I will be tracking this closely all week.

After next weekend the ridge is forecasted to stay out around 150w. You can see up top and on the sidebar that the teleconnections stay favorable for a Western trough with the -PNA and the MJO looping around into the Western Pacific. The shots of cold with light snowfall pattern could continue into the 3rd week of the month before the teleconnection forecast begins to favor ridging and warmer temps the end of the month and into December.

Stay tuned, it’s going to be fun here for a little while…..BA

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