We are still waiting for something to give here with the pattern of ridge in the West forecasted over the next couple of weeks. This is going to be a brief post as nothing has changed and since it’s the weekend I’ll have lots of time to look for hope.

The storm for Tuesday is still on the table but the models are split on whether or not the storm will split before reaching the Sierra. The GFS has been consistent on each run showing 3-6 inches with 6-9 up along the crest. The NOGAPS agrees but the Euro and Japanese models are splitting the storm with the energy diving South before reaching Tahoe.

We should be getting a better idea over the weekend. The models usually don’t disagree this much only a few days before a storm. There is better agreement beyond Tuesday with most models suggesting storms return to the Pacific NW by the end of the week. Still interested to see if the MJO can get to phase 7 this time and what its affects if any will be. The position it’s in now can be associated with a ridge but as it progresses it can be associated a strengthening jet stream that can undercut the ridge.

More over the weekend. BA

The resorts reported a general 2-3 inches from the quick burst of snow that pushed through before dawn this morning.  Reports of around an inch at lake level.  The European model performed the best on that one showing the possibility of 3 inches on yesterday’s runs.

I had a comment on a post I did on another site that maybe we are being greedy this season wanting another big snow year.  At this point I think we’d settle for an average season, but he had a point.  I think I have mentioned this before but the past 2 seasons were only the 3rd time we had back to back seasons with over 500 inches on Donner Summit in the past 100 years.

The only time we ever had three years in a row was back in the 1890′s when we had 5 years in a row.  Even though historically things are against us I am with those of you who are always greedy for snow.  I am never tired of it and wish it would snow everyday.  For the first time in my life I had the thought cross my mind that I was ready for Summer when it wouldn’t stop snowing this past June.

Last week I started talking about snow possibly returning for the second week of February.  That was based partly on seeing a storm forecasted by the models for Tuesday the 8th.  That storm is still there consistenly on the models.  Yesterday I mentioned the trend is for the decent looking storm to split to peices as it hits the ridge over the West.  Today the models are holding it together a little better.  There is confidence a storm will approach the coast, there is just not confidence in how well it will hold together and how much precip we will see.  Either way it doesn’t look like more than a quick shot of several inches if the storm is able to hold together.

The models are really struggling with what happens beyond a week out.  There is ridging all over the place from Alaska down through Canada and into the West trying to block storms from coming inland.  There are still no signs of the undercutting we are hoping for but the forecast for the MJO is for it to continue to strengthen with the convection moving East from the Western Pacific.  Sometimes the models don’t pick up on the convection leading to the jet stream undercutting the ridge until the MJO is in phase 7.

Have you ever seen the jet stream forecast to the right split that severely from North to South as it tries enter the West Coast?  This Greedy forecaster needs his snow fix.  BA