Not many changes to the forecast today. Kind of a complex event over the next two days that will bring rain and some snow.

You can see on satellite the low spinning of the SoCal coast drawing subtropical moisture up through CA from the South.  The rain will be moving in tomorrow and we could see a quarter to a half inch of rain into Wednesday night.

The snow levels will start to come down Wednesday night from over 9000 ft. to 7500-8000 ft.  That will start the accumulating snow above 8000 ft.  There are a few resorts open still this week so we will be able to get some measurements Thursday morning.

Then on Thursday the cold front, which you can also see on satellite, will move through from the NW dropping snow levels close to lake level Thursday.  With temp in the 40′s not expecting the snow to stick.  Snow showers could last into Thursday night.  Temps will only be in the 30′s on the mountains Thursday and Friday.

Above 7000 ft. we could see a few inches accumulate on the mountains Thursday.  Totals of 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. and 6-9 above 8000 ft. are possible by Friday morning, and maybe 9-12 on the highest peaks along the crest.  Not a big deal but on the highest peaks you could get some fresh turns in Thursday and Friday.

Then the weather gets quiet and temps jump back up into the 60′s over the weekend.  The weather looks like it could stay quiet for a little while after this system.  A trough will be around the West coast the second half of next week but it doesn’t look like much precip will come this far South right now.

Definitely not as active looking snow wise as last year but we could always get another storm in May.  I remember riding fresh powder at Alpine on closing day last year on May 15th.  BA

Some thunderstorms popping up around the area this evening. It’s been warm the past few days and with the moisture pumping up from the South and daytime heating, we are seeing some cool cloud formations and some showers.

We could see more thunder showers tomorrow but the temperatures should be cooler in the 50′s to near 60. The cut-off low is trending further South but we will see moisture start to stream in on Wednesday.

The snow levels are looking higher with this track and we should see rain all the way up to 9000 ft. on Wednesday. Then Wednesday night the cold trough begins to approach from the NW. The snow levels will begin to come down towards 8000 ft. or a little lower. We could see a few inches above 8000 ft. Wednesday night.

Then the cold front pushes through Thursday with continued precip and falling snow levels. At lake level we shouldn’t see any accumulations with the warm ground. On the mountains above 7000 ft. we could see a few more inches. Once again the Euro is bringing in twice as much liquid as the GFS and the Euro won with the last storm. The possibility is there that we could see a foot of snow above 8000 ft. along the crest and several inches above 7000 ft. Thursday.

We will have to keep watching. It’s always hard to believe snow is coming after really warm temps especially this time of year. At lake level temps will only be in the 40′s Thursday and Friday. I will take another look tomorrow at the amount of precip and snow levels. BA

A lot of you are probably enjoying the summer temps this weekend and are ready for Spring. Others wouldn’t mind another shot of snow before the resorts close. Either way it looks like whether we want it or not some more snow may be in store this week.

Low pressure in the Northeast Pacific is going to spin down off the coast over the next few days. Then the next trough digging into the Eastern Pacific is going to help push it inland on Wednesday. We should see some light precip Wednesday with snow levels around 7000 ft.

Then on Thursday the cold front associated with the next trough pushes in dropping snow levels and bringing more precip. Above 7000 ft. along the crest we could see a foot of snow Wednesday-Thursday. At lake level most of it shouldn’t stick with the warm ground, but maybe a couple of slushy inches at night.

Ridging should start to build back in for next weekend. A few resorts are re-opening next weekend and thse snow should help to refresh after all the slush this week. I will update a little more as we get closer. BA

The forecast models are back tracking for the storms next week. I still think the pattern is set up such that the idea storms next week have a lot of merit.

The models were pulling back from that idea when we last discussed on Tuesday. They were sending a cut-off low down the coast offshore and then back out to sea next week. Now it looks like a secondary trough will try to dig down the coast towards the end of next week pushing the cut-off inland ahead of it.

Still a question of where the low comes inland and then how far South the trough digs. We could see the low come in to our South, and then the trough with the cold front and snow stay to our North. But several model runs the past 2 days suggest we could see the low come inland over Central CA Wednesday with a cold trough blasting in Thursday into Friday.

If that scenario we see rain and mountain snow turning to all snow with cold, and it could pile up to several inches or more. I would like to see more cosistency in the model runs to lean towards a solution, but looking at the teleconnections a trough digging in looks plausible.

I try not to change the forecast much and spend a lot of time looking at things to do so. In the Spring and Fall though, with the change of the seasons, the forecast models really struggle and tend to do complete flips day to day. So hang tight as we try to figure out whether Spring or Winter will win the batter the second half of next week.

Another update Saturday…BA