The latest European model run brought in a quarter to a half inch of liquid along the crest tonight into Wednesday morning. Every other run and model shows only a dusting of snow so I wouldn’t expect much, but the chance is there a few inches could fall on the crest and an inch or two across the basin.

I just posted below on the record cold gripping Alaska this month. I don’t know if you could tell from my last post that I am not quite as confident in the pattern flip for this mid-month as I was for January. The pattern does look like it could go stormy the second half of the month but we need the ridge to shift far enought North for the jet stream to get in. The next 10 days the ridge will be really strong up the entire West Coast send the storms coming across the Pacific straight North as they hit the ridge.

The models still show a storm trying to reach the coast on the 8th but every model over the past 2 days except for today’s European ensembles show the storm splitting apart as it hits the ridge. The 12z European model has the storms starting to break through around the 10th and the 12z GFS around the 15th. With the PNA being the strongest it has been all season we need things to work out just right if we are going to get storms to reach CA.

One thing I don’t like to do on here is talk about negative things with regards to the snowfall forecast. You can find that on any other site. When the weather is dry I put out as many signs as I can find for a possible pattern change. Don’t confuse positive outlooks with hype. There are enough things I’m sure in your life to get you down so I do my best to find the best things I can in the weather hand we are being dealt. We have been spending a lot of time doing that this season so far.

There’s a lot of Winter going on out there in the Northern Hemisphere so sometimes we need to look at that like with Alaska to remind ourselves Winter is still out there. Big snows have been happening in Asia, Alaska, Canada, the Pacific NW, and now Europe. We got a taste of that last week with the negative PNA and North Pacific blocking. We now have picked up more snow than some of the driest years on record.  We are also lucky that we live in this time in history when we have the technology to make some good snow which wasn’t the case in the past.

Look at what they had to resort to in the 1930′s. A reader sent me this clip from the Nevada State Journal 1939. It’s about a want ad for snow that brought 6 inches to Colorado. Has anyone thought about trying this here in Tahoe yet this season? If not it may be worth a try.

Hang in there…BA

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

.A COLD JANUARY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA…

ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS THIS JANUARY.

WHEN THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS GET CALCULATED AT THE END OF THE MONTH SEVERAL COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE THEIR COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL LIKELY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE THE SKY WAS MORE PERSISTENTLY CLEAR…WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.

AT NOME…THIS JANUARY WILL LIKELY END UP AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -15.4 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY MAKES THIS THE COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT NOME DATE BACK TO 1907.

AT KOTZEBUE…THIS JANUARY LOOKS TO END AS THE 2ND COLDEST SINCE 1929. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -21.9 DEGREES IS THE COLDEST SINCE 1934 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS -27.7 DEGREES. CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KOTZEBUE DATE BACK TO 1929.

AT BARROW…THIS JANUARY IS EXPECTED TO END UP AS THE COLDEST SINCE 1990 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -20.1 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY. THE MONTH WILL NOT END UP AS ONE OF THE TOP TEN COLDEST. CONTINUOUS RECORDS AT BARROW DATE BACK TO 1921.

AT GALENA…THIS JANUARY WILL BE THE COLDEST ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -33.5 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL EASILY ENSURE THAT THIS JANUARY SURPASS THE -31.4 DEGREES THAT WAS OBSERVED IN 1971. WEATHER RECORDS AT GALENA DATE BACK TO 1942.

AT BETTLES…THIS JANUARY WILL END UP AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -35 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL SURPASS THE OLD RECORD OF -34 DEGREES ALSO IN 1971. THE RECORDS AT BETTLES DATE BACK TO 1951.

AT FAIRBANKS…THIS JANUARY WILL LIKELY GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE 5TH COLDEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -26.8 DEGREES. TEMPERATURE DATA AT FAIRBANKS DATES BACK TO 1904. (colder in 1906, 1934, 1969, 1971)

and don’t forget about the 20 feet of snow in Nome where the National Guard was called in to help dig out. It seems like all the worst Winter for the U.S. is in Alaska. That usually means the lower 48 will are warmer. We have a negative AO now though so the cold will break loose further South from the Arctic. Some of that cold and snow is now Europe where it was mild before as well. With the block forming up over Alaska and Western Canada the cold could come into the Eastern U.S. next. Will it come West from there towards the end of February?