Confidence Building in Snow This Weekend and Early Next Week
The forecast models switched with each other with the GFS now the one showing more precip this weekend and next week. Either way confidence is increasing that we will see several inches of snow Sunday through Wednesday. This will not be the big snows we have been waiting for. Instead we could see a 2 or 3 systems over the next 7 days.
It looks like some moisture will undercut the ridge and bring light snow showers on Saturday. Most likely a dusting to a couple of inches on the mountains. As the ridge builds off the coast a storm will drop in from the NW Sunday night into Monday with snow and colder air. This one will have more moisture and should bring several inches of snow. The GFS shows 3-6 inches and the Euro 6-9 inches with 9-12 along the crest. I would feel confident in a forecast 5 days out of 3-6 inches across the basin with 6-9 inches along the crest.
The Euro then moves the ridge closer the coast by mid-week pushing the storms just to the North which is what the GFS did yesterday. The GFS brings in another storm Wednesday with several more inches. Like I said Monday the position of the ridge will be critical in the pattern next week. The GFS keeps the ridge near the coast through the end of the week and the Euro begins to retrograde it allowing another cold storm in for Friday.
Right now I wouldn’t put much confidence in the forecast beyond Monday. The pattern will remain active over the Pacific NW and if the ridge sits far enough off the coast we could get some more light snow Wednesday and Friday next week. The long-range CFS model we looked at Monday showed the ridge continuing to retrograde West in the Pacific week 2 and week 3. That should open up the storm door more as we head further into the month.
The teleconnection forecasts are starting to look better as well. You can see the PNA forecast up top begins to head towards negative later in the month. It looks like we are going to have to take our snow in inches for now and then hopefully bigger storms later in the month. Inches is better than what we have had. BA
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