Ok, I have a good feeling about day14 and beyond so let’s start the countdown. We may actually see a flake of snow with the system brushing by to the North on Friday and that for some reason is exciting at this point. The weather models are coming into some more agreement that we could pick up several inches from the storm next Friday.
Don’t be surprised to see a flake or two on Friday as the cold front pushes through from the storm hitting the Pacific NW bringing them feet of snow. Then the ridge builds back up the coast for more quiet weather through the beginning of next week.
Then the ridge moves East and opens the door to a storm briefly on Friday before the next ridge builds back in off the coast. The Euro model is most aggressive with this storm but the GFS sees it too. It won’t be much but a few inches of snow would be a big deal at this point so we will watch it.
Nothing has been in our favor in the teleconnections over the past month with the +PNA and the MJO stuck in phase 5. We have been hoping that the strenthening jet stream would at times push far enough South to bring snow by flattening the ridge, or the ridge would pull away from the coast briefly. Well that is happening this week but the precip is only making it as far South as Northern CA.
We need to get rid of the ridge and put it out North of Hawaii, and even better would be near the Aleutian Islands. There are a few things that looks like they could come together around the 2nd week of January. This is not another 2 weeks forecast, it’s a the teleconnections are finally moving in the right direction forecast. Let’s watch for the MJO to progress into the Pacific, then the ridge retrograding out towards Hawaii, then the PNA going negative, and at the same time the cold building over Canada from the stratospheric warming pushing South down the West Coast.
Today’s 12z GFS had the block again from the Aleutians into Alaska and Northwest Canada. You know my style of forecasting. I don’t like to make a forecast off of the computer models. I like to look at the current pattern, compare it to history, and then come up with what I think will happen next. Then look for the computer models to catch on.
I have talked about the cold pushing down into the West with the jetstream coming underneath in January for a few weeks now. It is nice to see some of the model runs showing a similar scenario now at around the 10th and beyond. I don’t change the forecast with the change of every model run, just look for more model support to gain confidence in the pattern change. That is what we will wait for now. What other choice do we have? Stay tuned….BA
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