Got in day 50 today and it was a good one. Rode powder opening weekend, rode powder on Northstar’s closing day, and rode powder again today on Alpine’s closing day.
When I woke up this morning the reports were 4-6 inches at Boreal & Squaw, and 7-9 at Alpine. In East Truckee there was only about an inch but as I drove West and then South down 89 the snow got deeper & deeper. By the time I got to Alpine’s parking lot there was at least 8 inches.
Rode for about 2 hours and there was about a foot on the mountain. The powder was fairly light especially for this time of year and about shin deep. The amount of cold air today is impressive as well. At noon it was still only 30 degrees in Truckee and 17 on the Sierra crest which is about 34 degrees below the average high for today. It is understandable why they canceled the Amgen tour today.
The snow has not let up all day on the mountains along the crest so it looks like they could end up with over a foot by tomorrow morning. The snow will taper off for Monday but there are a couple more waves for Monday night and Tuesday night and they are looking more impressive today.
Models show .75-1 inch of liquid Monday night through Tuesday night. They heaviest snow is Monday night and maybe another burst Tuesday night. We could see a few more inches at lake level and 6-12 inches above 7000 ft. by Wednesday morning. Along the crest we could see over a foot. It is going to be interesting to see where we stand for the seasonal snowfall by the end of the week as we approach the 11th & 10th snowiest seasons on record since 1879.
The PNA teleconnection has jumped fairly positive which promotes ridging, and it is the most positive it’s been since the 6 week dry spell in January. I saw this coming which is why I was predicting warmth this weekend and upcoming week a few weeks ago. I also saw the MJO forecast but the waters have been so cold along the equator I wasn’t sure the MJO would have an affect on the pattern since it hasn’t the last few months.
Well it looks like it has as we continue this stormy period over the next few days. We should begin to dry out on Wednesday and then begin to warm on Thursday. Temps in the 30’s on the mountains through Wed. will warm into the 40’s on Thursday and then the 50’s into the weekend. Temps in the 40’s at lake level will warm into the 50’s on Thursday and then the 60’s into the weekend.
The ridge is going to begin to build Northward through the week in the Eastern Pacific. Models suggest a weak cutoff could bring some light precip near the area next Sunday Monday with slightly cooler temps and high snow levels. Not expecting much from this system. As the ridge expands the temps should continue to warm. We could possibly hit the 70’s at lake level by Memorial Day weekend.
Long-range models suggest that the ridge retrogrades again in the Pacific around the end of the month. The teleconnections do not support this unless the ridge moves back past 170w as the ridge over the Southwest US continues to expand NW. I would expect more warmth as we head into June, but the cold Pacific continues to play games. BA
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