Quick Post here this morning.

The system coming into the Pacific NW on Friday in between ridges looks like it will stay further North now thanks to the high quickly pushing towards the coast behind it.  Then that ridge sits off the coast through next weekend.

I have been talking about a big pattern change coming for around the 10th and beyond hence the 14 day count in the subject line starting 6 days ago.  There are some of you who track the forecast models at home and start to freak out if the GFS isn’t showing a stormy pattern starting on the 10th.  I never saw a big storm, I saw the pattern change over the Pacific that would open the door to storms and cold.  Opening the door and a storm coming through the door are 2 different things.

I do think the storms come as the pattern evolves but the models are really struggling with the change coming.  If you are looking at the forecast models yourself you have to look at the pattern over the Pacific not just over the U.S.  We have had a ridge of high pressure sitting off the coast blocking storms to our North for over a month and you can clearly watch as we get to the 10th the ridge moves away from the coast to the North and West.  That is a big pattern change.

The question is where is it going to setup and can we get moisture to come under the ridge?  This morning’s GFS sets up the ridge at around 140w starting the 9th which opens the door to cold comin down into the West and then pushes the ridge North.  It tries to bring moisture under the ridge into coast but it is forming a cut-off with a possible rex block of the low sitting under the high off the coast next week.

Then the ridge starts to build near the Aleutians and pushes up into Alaska towards the end of next week.  That is when the storms will have a much easier time coming underneath into the West Coast.  This is a big change from the ridge sitting off the coast.  It may not be the hose turning on immediately on the 10th, but it’s exciting because things are changing and moving in the right direction to get Winter started. 

So don’t freak out on the run to run of the models, as long as the pattern keeps shifting over the Pacific and moving the ridge we’re looking better.  Stay tuned….BA

Filed under: Home

Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!