As of April 1st the Tahoe Basin snowpack was at 173% of average. That will be the peak of our winter snowpack as we begin the meltdown going into spring. The bad news is that there are no significant cold storms on the horizon. The good news is that aren’t any warm storms with rain either and the temperatures will be staying right around average for this time of year which will keep the base around for a while.
The pattern over the Pacific right now is similar to the pattern in December with the low pressure spinning in the Gulf of Alaska and the ridge near the Bering Sea. The difference is that the jetstream is weaker now and the moisture is going to be pulled up into the Pacific NW and Northern tip of CA. We will be getting several storms that miss just to our North over the next two weeks with a weak ridge sitting along the CA coast.
This pattern will bring us clouds, wind, and slightly cooler temperatures as the storms go by to our North today, Wednesday, & Friday. The tail end of the moisture may come far enough South to bring some sprinkles at lake level and a little light snow above 7000 ft. Temps will be around average in the 40′s on the montains and 50′s at lake level between the storms on Tuesday, Thursday and this weekend. We could hit 60 at lake level on Saturday.
The pattern looks to break up the beginning of next week over the Pacific and then another low sets up in the Gulf of Alaska bringing more storms to the Pacific NW. In this pattern over the next couple of weeks we will have some warmer days and some cooler days and chances of light precip. That is pretty much the definition of a “dirty ridge”.
It would not take much of a shift of the trough to the South and East to bring us some snow. We will have to keep monitoring the weather over the next couple of weeks. The teleconnections are still favorable for storms to move into Northern CA and the long-range models show normal to slightly above normal precip for our area. That would lead me to believe we could still get one more decent storm before the end of the month.
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