Update 7 PM:
Looking Good, low pressure tracking toward the coast. We should see the heaviest snow move in between midnight and noon on MOnday. Snowfall forecast looks good. Enjoy!
From This Morning:
Resort Totals page updated as of 6 AM. 6-12 more inches were picked up by the resorts yesterday in the post-frontal orographic snow showers. That brought storm totals to 16-24 inches, and 3 day totals to 20-29 inches . We should be able to double those numbers by Tuesday with the storm moving in today. Reader reports updated as well to show the 2 day totals reported so far, let me know if they are accurate through this morning.
So the forecast last Wednesday for the first storm we were thinking 6-12 inches on the mountains and we got 4-8 inches, 2nd storm 1-2 feet with up to 3 feet on the crest and we got 1.5-2 feet. Was thinking storm totals of 1.5-3 ft above 7000 East of the crest with 2.5-4 feet along the crest by today and we are only at 1.5-2.5 feet for everyone. So we are just about at the low end of the forecast East of the crest and foot behind the high end of where I thought we’d be by today, and about half a foot behind the low end of the forecast along the crest and 1.5-2 feet behind the high end.
I don’t like being off as I am competive with the weather. You should never fight with other forecasters over a forecast because it takes plenty of effort to fight with the weather itself. I think we can win one back here with the next storm. Just going to break it down mathematically here. The forecast models are showing 1-1.5 inches of liquid over the Tahoe basin. Snow ratios at lake level should average out to around 12:1 and 15:1 above 7000 ft. That gives us 12-18 inches at lake level by MOnday night, and 15-23 inches above 7000 ft.
Along the crest the models show 1.25-1.75 inches of liquid with average snow ratios of 15:1 which is 19-26 inches. What was interesting this morning was the GFS putting a bullseye of 2-3 inches of liquid just West of the crest on the Western slopes.
That gets the 2 inch line really close to the crest and since it is the only model showing that much right now I would just use it as confidence we can pull out the higher end of the snowfall forecast this time.
The snow showers will move in later this morning with the heavier snow moving in this evening. The snow will last through the day on Monday before tapering off by evening. I am hopeful that we can recover some of the forecast deficit with this one. There’s plenty of potential with this cold storm that we double the 1.5 – 2.5 storm totals so far into 3-5 foot storm totals by the Tuesday morning snow reports.
The long-range is a little depressing right now, so let’s just live in the moment and take a look at the long-range when we’re done. That gives us more time for it to change too. BA
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