Easter Sunday Summary…
After a delicious holiday meal and an exciting end to the Master’s it’s time to take a look the weather. This is going to be another exciting week with what looks like lots of snow on the way along with lots of cold.
The forecast models have been in great agreement and consistent all week on the storms for this week. That boosts confidence in what we should see. It has been spring-like this weekend so once again this will be a dramatic change. It is also looking like this is going to be the last pow dump before the resorts close.
Snowfall forecast for the week…
If you have been checking the site or any other sattelite image you have seen the low spinning off the coast all weekend. That will continue on Monday before the next system dropping into the West Coast trough pushes it inland beginning Tuesday. We will see the winds pick up Monday and Tuesday as it nears and then some precip as early as later in the day. The heaviest precip looks to hold off until Wednesday.
Snow levels will fall and we will see snow to lake level as the heaviest precip moves in. This first system is not a big storm but we will see several inches on the mountains. Right now it looks like 1-3 inches Tuesday night and then 3-6 inches Wednesday with the highest amounts on the crest.
We could see another inch or two Wednesday night before the snow showers taper off between systems. Total for the first system of 1-4 inches at lake level 3-6 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 9 inches on the crest. Amounts will be low at lake level as it looks like the heaviest snow falls during the day Wednesday with temperatures above freezing.
The next storm is ready to dive in right behind the first one and this one will will have more moisture. It looks like the jet stream will take a direct aim at Central CA. Still a chance the heaviest precip could be just to our South, but the models have been consistent in bringing plenty of precip into Tahoe. It looks like the heaviest snow could move in by Thurday afternoon into Thursday night.
Jet stream forecast for Thursday…
The center of the low looks like it will move inland Friday keeping the snow showers going. It may move through slowly enough to keep the snow showers going all the way into Saturday morning. It looks like a quick dump Thursday into Thursday night of up to a foot above 7000 ft, and up to 18 inches along the crest. If the heaviest snow falls at night lake level should do pretty well with 6-9 inches possible.
Then the snow showers will add several more inches on the mountains Friday and Friday night. Total for this storm looks to be around 6-12 inches at lake level, 12-18 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 2 feet for resorts West of the lake and along the crest. It’s still several days out on this system so we will have to fine tune forecast amounts through the week. All told we could see 2-3 feet on the mountains by next Saturday.
This could be it for the season. Not only for the resorts that close next weekend, but the ones that close the following two weekends as well. Looking at the long-range forecast it looks like the storm activity will shift just to our North week 2. Then the trough may dig into the Gulf of Alaska and shift West after that. That is similar to the pattern we had during the dry spell in January as it builds the ridge off the coast blocking storms.
You can see the 6-10 day precip forecast on the right sidebar showing below average precip. Here is the CFS V2 climate forecasting model we have used to help with the long-range this season. It shows below average precip for weeks 3 and 4 as well.
That brings us to the end of April. We could definitely see some more storms in May and I will post on that, but most of the resorts will be closed so you will have to hike for it.
So one more day of spring-like weather and then some more snow to measure and shred the rest of the week. BA
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