Thu Morning Update:
Watching the radar today to see how far North the precip band on the North side of the low pushes. It is currently snowing on Mammoth and they are expecting 3-5 inches up top through tonight. We have already seen some sprinkles here in the early morning hours. Still expecting the heaviest precip to stay to our South. Best chance to see some high elevation light snow will be on the South and East sides of the lake.
Also, new on the models this morning is a tropical system coming up the West coast next week. The forecast models show the possibility of it coming straight up into CA. Not only could that bring some heavy rain but also change the pattern and allow a storm to move in off the Pacific the last week of the month. That will be something to watch this week. BA
From Wed Evening:
The cut-off low is still actually spinning off the coast, which is how they get their name being cut-off from the jetstream with nothing to push them inland. It will finally push inland over SoCal tomorrow. Models still show a tiny bit of moisture reaching this far North as the moisture wraps up from the South tomorrow night. I wouldn’t bet too high on it, but maybe some sprinkles and some high elevation light snow.
A weak storm to our North on Saturday and then a stronger storm coming across into the Pacific NW for the beginning of next week looks like it will stay to our North. Last week it looked like a slim chance it could come a bit further South but the ridge is going to hang tough.
After that unfortunately it looks like the ridge is going to build in strong over the Southwest keeping any storms well to the North into the last weekend of the month. We may even see a nice little warmup as that happens. A little Indian Summer action.
Meanwhile snow has been falling this week in the upper Midwest and into the ski resorts of the Northeast. It is still really early for us. I remember hiking on the mountain and scoping out lines in the middle of Nov. 2010, the day before the 100+ inch week started. It was really warm and dry and I remember my buddy saying, “are you sure there is snow coming?”. A week later every mountain was buried in enough snow to open all terrain. It happens that fast here in Tahoe so sit tight, it won’t be long…BA
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