Final Big One?
I changed up the Resort Totals page today to show all the stats for the week, month, season, etc. underneath the daily report. Resorts are reporting another 12-22 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total from storm #1 to 20-30 inches on the West side of the lake and 13-15 inches on the East side. We do have a few resorts now over 700 inches with more to follow.
Lake level reports of 6-7 inches so far in the past 24 hours bringing storm totals to 10-12 inches. That is pretty much on forecast for storm #1 and storm #2 is moving in today. This storm is much stronger than storm #1 and is also windier and colder. That will combine for a nice big storm (blizzard in some areas) over the next 24 hours, possibly one of the bigger ones of the season and most likely the LAST big one of the season.
Heavy precip is banking up along the crest this morning and will spill over soon. It is going to be a mess this afternoon with some models showing up to an inch of liquid in a 6 hour period between 11 a.m. & 5 p.m. That’s 2-4 inches an hour adding up to 1-2 feet in that short time span on the mountains and the passes so I would expect a lot of resorts to close and highways as well through tonight.
Another interesting thing this morning is that the temps dropped overnight into the teens above 8000 ft. and the 20′s at lake level and are holding steady as the storm approaches. That is showing how cold this storm is going to be with snow ratios of 20:1 up on the mountains and 12-15:1 at lake level. Models are all different in the details of the storm over the next two days with amounts of precip and when but it looks like at least 1.5 inches of liquid by tomorrow morning. So let’s go 12-18+ inches at lake level, 18-30+ inches above 7000 ft, and 3 feet or more on the crest.
Then there are more waves rotating in tomorrow that keep the snow going into Friday night. That drops another 6-12 inches at lake level, 12-18 inches above 7000 ft. and up to 2 more feet on the crest. By Saturday morning I’m expecting storm totals of 2-3 feet at lake level, 3-4 feet above 7000 ft. and up to 5 feet or more along the crest. For anyone new to the blog I try to forecast right on or just below what we’ll get, no hype here.
Another storm moves in on Saturday but models are not in agreement on this one. Some want to bring in a nice little storm with 6-12 inches at lake level and 12-18 above 7000 ft., with clearing on Sunday. Others have the storm a little weaker on Saturday with another final storm moving through on Sunday. Either scenario we look to pick up several more inches over the weekend at lake level and 1-2 feet on the mountains to cap of an amazing 2 weeks of snowfall.
Powder hounds get on it this weekend because we have a flip next week in the pattern with a closing of the storm door as the ridge shifts to off our coast. Temps should be up into the 40′s by mid-week on the mountains and 50′s at lake level. You could even break those shorts out in Reno as they shoot for the 60′s. It’s time for some spring skiing on the best base we have seen to start Aplril in at least 28 years.
I also recommend getting out your camera and taking shots around Tahoe of the amazing snowpack as who knows it could be another 16-28 years before we have this much snow again if we go by the law of averages. This won’t be the end of snow just the end of huge storm cycles, I’m pretty sure anyway. The pattern does look to stay fairly progressive long-range but the jetstream should be retreating North so we will get shots of colder weather and light-moderate snowfall with each qucik hitting storm. That could start as early as next weekend. BA
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