A Pattern You Will Love?
Updated 9 PM:
Sticking with the snowfall forecast below from this morning, I added the long-range. I will post on the totals in the morning and then I need to take tomorrow night off to take my wife out for her birthday.
The compact little storm for tonight could easily jog just to the East or West and miss us because it is coming straight down from the North. It looks like it may actually go our way this time and come straight down over the Sierra. The snow will move in after midnight and should be falling hardest in the early morning hours. The fact that the snow will mostly fall at night and the storm is cold we should see close to 20:1 snow ratios even down to lake level.
This storm does not have much moisture but it but with the high rations we’ll do ok. The GFS and NAM say around 3-6 inches, but the Euro and it’s ensemble members are persistent on 6-9 inches. I’m going to go with the lower amount for lake level and the higher amount for the peaks and along the crest.
For the weekend we have a storm going to our North on Saturday and another on Sunday. We should get some light snow from the Saturday system and then a bit more on Sunday into Monday. If the European forecast model verifies we could get similar amounts with the second system as we got with yesterday’s storm.
The long-range looks drier the second half of next week and then the chance the ridge retrogrades around the 25th allowing more storms in to finish February and start March. The ridge wants to be anchored this week out around 140w letting moisture starved storms to drop down the West Coast.
We would like to see that high pressure ridge out to the North of Hawaii where storms can pick up more moisture off the Pacific as they drop into th West Coast. We have been using the new CFS climate model this season that came out last March. It tries to forecast the pattern out a month. Here is what we look like next week which is similar to right now with the high pressure off the coast.
But here is the last few days of the month and into the first week of March showing lower heights along the West Coast. That would be a stormier pattern.
And here it looks just as good for second week of March.
These long-range models aren’t always accurate but we have some other good signs. Look at the PNA forecast up top of the site. It is forecasted to drop negative pretty quick at the end of the month which would also mean lower heights along the West Coast.
Then add in the MJO which is now in phase one and forecasted to keep looping around through phases 2 & 3 over the next 2 weeks. You can see that on the right sidebar image. Here are the composites for the MJO for February showing increased chances of storminess for CA through each of the 3 phases.
So we have a lot of things on our side for storms to increase the last week of the month and into March. Enjoy the fresh powder again tomorrow morning. BA
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