Not too many changes from yesterday.  We have a prolonged heavy precipitation event on the way that could bring 5-10 inches of liquid over a 5-6 day period starting Wednesday. Where the heaviest precip falls and the snow levels still need to be fine tuned but the forecast models aren’t making it easy as they don’t completely agree.

Already went through this in yesterday post so I will just summarize the model differences as of this morning. For Wednesday into Wednesday night the GFS has less precip but a bit colder with snow mixing in down to lake level, with 1-3 inches above 6500 ft. and up to 6 on the crest. The European has the snow levels a tad higher 6500-7000 ft. and 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. with up to 9 along the crest.

Next wave moves in later Thursday into Friday. The GFS has snow levels up around 7000 ft. while the European drops them close to lake level. This is a big different because this is a heavy precip event and several feet of snow could fall. Lake level or above 7000 ft. would make a big difference. The Euro has had the colder air working in on the last 2 runs. The GFS is a tad cooler at 7000 ft. this morning.

The next wave moves in Saturday with another round of heavy precip. The GFS and European models show the heaviest precip just to our North and snow levels rising up to 8000 ft. for a heavy rain event below that and a lot of heavy wet snow above 8000 ft. The Canadian shows the heaviest precip just to our South and keeps the snow levels a tad lower.

Another wave moves in Sunday. The GFS consistently shows snow levels falling to lake level for this event while the European and Canadian only have snow levels coming down to around 7000 ft. That would mean the difference between finishing the storms as rain at lake level or several inches of snow. The precip could linger into Monday with some models showing one final weak wave moving through.

Depending on where the heaviest precip falls the spread across the models right now is 5-10 inches of liquid. Above 8000 ft. 4-8 feet of snow is possible Wed-Mon. Below that the snow levels will make a big difference between a lot of rain and a lot of snow. With some of these warm storms the snow levels end up higher than anyone expected and sometimes lower, hopefully we will get some more clarity over the next couple of days. With the majority of ski resort terrain between 6000-9000 ft. 7000-8000 ft. snow levels make the difference between only 1/3 of the mountain or 2/3 getting buried in snow.

Stay tuned for updates…BA

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