First Real Snow…….
Today’s storm won’t be a big one, but it will be the first real snow of the season with accumulating snow down to lake level. It has already begun raining here at lake level and snowing up around 7500 ft. Heavier precip will move in later this morning and this afternoon as the cold front moves through. Snow levels will drop to lake level by later this afternoon.
I am going to bump the snow totals back up a tad to where I had them on Wednesday. It always seems to work out that way, the totals are more accurate 5 days out than the day before. The NAM & the GFS this morning have a bit more precip, and the lingering snow showers tonight in the cold could pile up fast. So that is 6-12 inches above 7000 ft. with 12-18 along the Western crest, and 2-4 at lake level by Monday morning. The 18 would be above 7500 ft. and Truckee would most likely be more on the 2 side. There could be a nice burst of snow tonight to the North of Truckee that if it comes far enough South could push the total up slightly.
Starting today the highs on the mountains will not get out of the 30′s all week and the 20′s Monday and Wednesday. That is going to be great news for snow making. The ground is already moist from the ton of rain in October, and then a fresh base today with snow making on top all week. We would all prefer to open the resorts on feet of natural snow, but that has rarely been the case lately, so snow making is good news. Highs at lake level will be in the 30′s & 40′s.
Another storm will slide down from the North on Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air, and some snow. If the storm slides inside of us it will be drier than if it comes right over us. Right now the models are split on the track. At best it looks like a few inches, but it will be cold with snow levels down as low as Reno so that means whatever does fall will be fluffy and will pile up faster.
We start to slowly warm up on Friday before another shot of cold air looks to come down from the North. The long-range models are all over the place right now. It looks like the ridge stays just to our West keeping storms to our North and East but close enough to drag cold air down over the next couple of weeks. No more big storms on the horizon right now.
It does appear that we will have a pattern shift around the 20th of the month. If the PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection continues to go negative I would be surprised if we don’t get some more storms towards the end of the month. Just have to watch the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) teleconnection to see if it goes negative which could jam up the flow and hold a trough over the East and a ridge over the West.
Best case scenario for us is a negative PNA which keeps a more zonal jetstream aimed at the coast and less of a chance of ridging, and a positive NAO which is over the Atlantic and helps to prevent permanent troughing over the East which holds dry & warm ridges over the West. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is forecasted to go strongly negative by the end of the month which is why I am looking for an Arctic Outbreak. Cold Arctic air will pour down into North America when the AO goes negative. It can also mean a better chance for storms as the jetstream comes a bit further South. Will also keep an eye on the MJO which as you can see on the sidebar is starting to strengthen and is headed towards the Western Pacific. That could influence the jetstream over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned…….BA
Filed under: Home
Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!