First Storm Update of the Season….
Quick Update Sunday PM:
cut-off low spinning off the coast has been slow to push East. It looks as if it will move South down the coast faster than it will move East. That will hold off any chance of showers until Tuesday night or Wednesday if we see anything at all. That will make the temps a little warmer this week but still staying in the 60′s. Still watching the storms to our North next wee and will update on those later.
It’s going to be a great Fall weekend now that the weather has cooled off. It will actually feel like October.
We have the cut-off low spinning off the coast and the forecasts have it coming inland by Monday and then staying to our West and down the coast. That leaves us out of the coldest air up high so we should see some rain showers and any dustings of snow should stay near to above 8000 ft. We should see the low clear out by Wednesday but the temps should stay in the 50′s to near 60 even when the sun returns.
Both the Euro and GFS models show us on the Southern edge of a weakening system next Saturday. We could see some more rain showers if that holds. There is increasing storminess in the Northwest going into week 2 as the jetstream continues to strengthen. We still have a chance at seeing a little bit stronger of a storm in the 15th-17th time frame, but it looks like a pretty warm storm right now and how far South the heaviest precip comes is still questionable.
Uber long-range looks to be continued unsettled in the Pacific NW and Western Canada but still looks a little early for the jet to push storms this far South. We should see that begin to happen towards the end of the month and into November. I would expect a couple measurable snows for the mountains before Thanksgiving.
The El Nino is almost El Nada still as the cold water in the Pacific seems to be overwhelming it. I’m wondering if the forecast models showing a moderate El Nino this Winter are about as trustworthy as when they were saying we were going to have a Super La Nina this time last year. I’m still liking my weak El Nino analogs for the Winter forecast.
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