First Winter Storm of the Season….
It’s only October 3rd and the Winter Storm Watches have been posted by the NWS. The storm is looking nice on satellite this morning spinning a spiral off the Pacific NW coast. Still looking for the first whitening of the Basin on Wednesday and if you live up above lake level you will most likely need your shovel.
Biggest change over the weekend was for the storm to speed up. That will do a few things: drop snow levels faster, cause the storm to start Tuesday night, and kick the storm out faster keeping accumulations down. It is still going to be a classic mid-winter hit of a strong cold front bringing around a 6 hour period of heavy snowfally down to lake level.
The GFS has definitely backed off on the total precip amounts with the faster pace of the storm. Now looking at .5 – 1.0 inches of liquid. Temps will be near or just above freezing above 7000 ft. so snow ratios will be around 10:1. At lake level the snow:water ratios will be much lower with a really wet snow falling.
It looks like if the snow starts at lake level before sunrise we could see a slushy accumulation of 1-3 inches and then as the sun comes up it should only stick in shady spots. Above 7000 ft. We should pick up 5-10 inches of snow with the most above 8000 ft, and up to a foot on the crest. The Euro and a couple other models are still showing over an inch of liquid. That would lead me to err on side of the higher end forecast totals.
Everything should be done by Wednesday evening with just maybe some linger snow showers on the crest. Then we begin to dry out and warm back up. By the middle of next week it should be pretty nice again with temps back into the 60′s and maybe 70′s. The only change in the weather right now in the long-range is a possible cool-down the third week of the month. This storm is just a mean tease from mother nature.
September & water year recap after the storm. Stay tuned…..BA
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