First wave of moisture out of three moved in overnight. Most of the moisture got held up along the Western crest. Resorts on the crest generally reporting 2-4 inches of snow this morning, and resorts to the East of the crest reporting only an inch or two. This first wave of moisture should last through the morning.

The next wave of moisture will be right behind the first, moving in this afternoon and lasting into Saturday morning. Models have another .25-.5 inches of liquid with this one. Should see another 3-6 inches by tomorrow morning at the resorts, giving us our total of 5-10 inches with the first systems. Looking like the 10 will be on the crest and the 5 will be over the lake and in Truckee due to shadowing.

Third wave of moisture moves in by Saturday afternoon. This is the big part of the storm with a moist jet extending all the way across the Pacific. You can see this nicely this morning on satellite to the North of Hawaii. Still not 100 percent confidence in the exact location of the strongest part of the jetstream coming into the Sierra. Looking like at the minimum 1.5-2 inches of additional liquid. That would translate to 18-24 inches at lake level and 24-30 inches above 7000 ft. with up to 3 ft. on the crest. Let’s start there and then adjust based on the location of the jetstream. Could be an additional foot if it comes over Tahoe. Once the heavier precip moves in the shadowing affect should be much less. Heaviest snow ends Sunday but snow showers could linger into Sunday night.

See previous posts for long range ideas….BA

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