Happy New Year……
Just as I suspected this storm is acting just like the storm and the 21st. Models have continued to back off on how much precip makes it into Tahoe. Still looking for snow showers on Friday but it looks as if the max is a couple of inches in any location. Best shot at accumulating snow will be on the crest. Snow levels during the day will be just above lake level aroudn 6500 ft.
We are now in the dry pattern that was seen coming as the ridge strengthens off the coast of CA sending storms into the Pacific NW and British Columbia. Models today are showing the ridge strong enough to keep any accumulating snow from reaching us for at least a week.
Still looking as if storms will begin to break through starting next weekend. Models are not showing any consistency in keeping the wet pattern going the following week, so we will have to watch the teleconnections to see what help is on the way. The MJO is still strengthening and heading East, and we should be able to tell if that will help in the next few days. The NAO forecasted to keep heading deeply negative for about another weak holding the trough in the East & blocking up the progressiveness of the weather patterns. As it turns back towards positive the 2nd week of January, hopefully it will weaken enough to allow the ridge over CA to move a bit and allow the jetstream to come back into CA. The jetstream will be strong as we are heading into January and there is plenty of food for it as El Nino has strengthened the past month. I believe as soon as the pattern begins to progress and the jetstream can come back into CA, we are in for some big storms. Stay tuned as all we can do is watch and wait…….BA
“It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers.” James Thurber
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