Here We Go….
5 p.m. Update:
Snow levels have risen above 5,000 feet on the Western side of the crest with the warm air pushing on that side of the mountains. Cold air is still trapped in Tahoe and Reno. Snowing at 30 degrees in Reno and 28 degrees in Truckee. Looking at the the higher elevations the temps have been holding steady at 8700 ft. around 27 degrees. The key tonight will be the winds because the stronger they are the more warm air will mix in. Right now they are still very light. I will update if the snow levels come up to lake level or above. Still looks like we don’t max out much higher than 6500 ft. overnight. Either way the snow levels crash in the morning and we get tons of snow all the way to lake level for several more days.
Last few model runs today have increased snowfall for Monday and then decreased it for Tuesday/Wednesday with the heavier precip trending South. This keeps snow levels below lake level but only a couple feet instead of 3-5 more feet those 2 days. Looks like only a 48 hour break sometime Thursday-Saturday before we get another big storm by Saturday night and Sunday. Stay tuned as I update throughout the night and join my twitter alerts for snow level tweets to your phone. BA
From This Morning:
NWS is now leaning towards my idea of the colder solution with this storm. Precip has gotten an early start today especially on the North end of the lake and that should increase snow totals during the day today. Looking for 3-6 inches at lake level today, but may need to increase that on the North End and Truckee, and another 6-12 inches tonight. 6-12 inches on the mountains today with 1-2 feet additional tonight. So lake level will around 12-18 inches by morning and the resorts 2-3 feet. In the early morning hours seems to be the best chance that the snow levels could come up just above lake level to around 6500 ft. before coming back down before noon on Saturday, so it will be short lived.
The snowfall looks to be much lighter during the day Saturday in between the 2 strong waves of moisture. Snowfall looks to be in the 3-6 inch range at lake level and 6-10 inch range on the mountains. Then the snowfall picks up again Saturday night into Sunday. 5-10 inches at lake level Saturday night and another 8-16 inches on Sunday. The mountains pick up 10-20 inches Saturday night and another 1-2 feet on Sunday. By Sunday night total storm snowfall should be around 2-3 feet at lake level, although it may be washed down a little if it rains Saturday morning. On the mountains we should see 3-6 feet with the higher amounts on top and along the Western Crest. The only place that worries me is downtown Truckee since they are 300-400 ft. lower than lake level around 5800-5900 ft. That may keep the change to rain a bit longer in the morning and may have a brief change Sunday morning as snow levels are near 6000 ft. Worst case should see at least 1.5-2 feet total.
Light snow continues Sunday night and Monday with several more inches possible. The next big storm arrives Tuesday and that looks colder as well today. The heaviest precip looks to go South of us so less precip but should be all snow below lake level. Right now I would estimate around 2-4 feet of additional snow on the mountains and 1-2 feet at lake level Tuesday and Wednesday. Total 6 day total by Wednesday could be in the 5-10 foot range above 7000 ft, and 3-5 feet at lake level. The Euro today wants to bring one last wave with more snow on Thursday, but the GFS wants to clear out into Christmas weekend. Should be much better driving on Friday and Saturday. Sunday it looks as if another storm will move in. We could be in for quite a bit of snow for the next month or two with the pattern we have right now. More details on the dynamics of the pattern in the post below. Have fun and be safe. BA
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