Working through the models this morning.  They first started showing the cold trough dropping down the coast for early next week, that we talked about in the last post, pulling in moisture off the Pacific on yesterday morning’s runs.  I waited 24 hours to watch the trend trying to not jump the gun on a accumulating snowfall event above 7000ft for next week.

The models are still not in agreement on the details but they are all showing a wave coming in under the cold low dropping down the coast next Tuesday bringing us a decent shot of early season precip.  The question that still lingers is  how far South the low drops which would determine how much cold air gets into the storm and how low the snow levels are.  You can see the jetstream forecast on the right sidebar buckling down the West Coast by Monday.

It does look as if the low dropping down the West coast stalls off the Pacific NW coast.  If it stay further North we could see several inches above 7000 ft. on Tuesday.  Some runs show the low coming further South and the cold front coming through with the wave on Tuesday which would drop snow levels to lake level and would increase snowfall amounts in the higher elevations.

After that the majority of model runs have the ridge building back in and a quick warmup later next week into the weekend.  A couple runs of the GFS show the low pressure staying off the Pacfic NW coast sending the next storm underneath into CA instead of to our North if the ridge builds in.  In that scenario we could see more than a foot of snow next week for the mountains.  That is the less likely scanario right now but on the table.

This all seems to make sense with the negative PNA and phase 1-2 MJO.  Stay tuned for daily updates as we zero in on the details of the possible snow next week…..BA

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