Hurry Up and Wait….
I haven’t been posting because there is really not much change in the short-range forecast as we will see the cold air move in the this weekend with the chance for a dusting. There is another wave that may push through on Monday reinforcing the cold air and will bring the chance for another dusting.
Still watching the storm that will approach on Wednesday. The European model has been consistent with bringing several inches up to a foot of snow with this storm. The GFS has the ridge a little closer to the coast and shows the storm just brushing us with the snow. We should get some more clarity over the next couple of days.
Either way the pattern over the next week will have much colder air around than what we are experiencing right now. I was on the slopes yesterday and it was really warm even up top.
Still watching the pattern over the Pacific in the long-range. It is taking a little longer to retrograde the ridge to the North of Hawaii on the model runs. This may be because the MJO is stuck in the early part of phase 2 as you can see on the right sidebar. That can be slowing the PNA from going negative as well as they tend to work together as the convection moves through the Indian Ocean.
The forecast still has it progressing into phase 3 over the next 2 weeks and the PNA forecast is still for it to go negative. As it does I would expect the forecast models to continue to show more retrogression of the ridge away from the coast over the next couple of weeks. The unreliable long-range models are showing another cold trough the weekend of the 5th with some bigger storms the following week. I would expect that to be the trend.
This is just a continuation of the frustrating season as we push the stormy pattern back from the end of February into the first week of March. The storms are coming though and I think March will turn out to be a good month for snow if not the best of the season. Winter is really starting to crank up in the Pacific NW, the Rockies, and the East, so our turn should hopefully be close behind. Stay tuned….BA
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