In the Knick of Time……
Update 7 p.m.:
Snow levels have come down pretty fast this evening, close to lake level already. The snowfall forecast may be a little low because of that. Update first thing in the morning.
From This Afternoon:
Back in the driver’s seat here just in time for our big week of storms starting with today. Resorts picked up another 1-5 inches in the past 24 hours with some snow showers that moved through in the moist flow yesterday and last night.
Next storm is moving in this afternoon with overrunning moisture already in the area ahead of the main storm. Snow levels are beginning to rise above 7000 ft. but will fall to lake level overnight. You can see the moisture tap as the jetstream is extending across the Pacific and into CA. This jet will push into the area this afternoon and through the day on Wednesday.
Models are pretty consistent on 1.5-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Wednesday night. The hard part of this storm forecast is going to be snowfall as it will depend on how fast the snow levels drop as the colder air moves in. The easier part is above 7000 ft. on the mountains where it is all snow. There we should see 12-18 inches with 18-24 along the crest.
At lake level up to 7000 ft. it is a lot trickier. Looking at the timing of the snow levels dropping it appears to me that there could still be up to an inch of liquid after they drop. The other factor though is the strong sun through the clouds here in March that can limit snow accumulations during the day at lake level. I would expect around 4-8 inches with amounts higher as you go up in elevation and further towards the West Side of the lake.
Next storm is set to move in by Friday and this storm is much colder with snow levels starting at lake level. We will see snow showers along the crest as early as Thursday night with snow pushing into the basin Friday night and Saturday. This storm looks to bring another 1-2 feet of snow but of the drier variety.
We will have to watch the track of another low diving in behind this one over the weekend. The low looks to track in to our South but enough precip could still make far enough North to bring us several more inches. Temps over the weekend will be cold with highs in the 30′s at lake level and 20′s on the mountains.
The storms for Wednesday and Friday of next week are still on track as well. These are colder storms as well and could bring us some decent snows. We should have quite a few resorts above 600 inches by the end of the month. BA
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