Nice weather again today ahead of the next storm that will hit the Pacific NW. The parade of storms will continue to impact the Pacific NW over the next couple of weeks as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska spins them in on its South side. The big question for Tahoe over the next couple of weeks is how far South will the storms track.
As long as the pattern remains active odds are we get at least some snow even if we have to take it in inches. The next storm moves through tomorrow night and light snow should make its way to at least the mountains along the crest. Total snowfall looks to be around 1-3 inches Thursday night along the crest with maybe a couple of inches on mountains in the basin.
Nice weather between each of these storms with nice weather again Friday and Saturday ahead of the next storm Saturday night. This storm looks to stay north of us so maybe some clouds and a dusting on the mountains at most. Then nice weather again on Sunday.
The next storm arrives on Monday and this storm looks as if it could dip a little further South. This would bring us some snow more in the 3-6 inch range. There is another storm behind that for next Wednesday. This storm also looks as if it will come further South but the models vary greatly on the strength. The GFS says it’s another 3-6 inch storm but the Euro has it picking up even more moisture and slowing to bring us a couple of feet. Either way the storms next week look to bring several inches instead of a couple inches like the storms this week.
The storms over the next week are coming across the Pacific in a zonal fashion and so they will not be that cold, but not that warm either. For some good cold strong storms we need the flat ridge to amplify and setup further West in the Pacific. This may begin to happen towards the end of next week. That would allow the storms next Friday and into the weekend to go North, grab cold air, and then drop down the coast and pick up some decent moisture off the Pacific before hitting CA.
The pattern from day 10 and beyond into the final week of March may feature some colder and stronger storms. Long range models support this currently but remember the accuracy of the long-range models with the change in the seasons can be not as good. For now we will expect the stormy pattern to continue into the end of the month. I will be the first to let you know if that changes….BA
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