Update 7 PM:

Taking a look at the satellite the storm is holding together pretty well, and the cloud tops are cooling nicely as the storm approaches the coast which shows strengthening. The winds have really picked up ahead of the storm with ridge gusts that could hit 100 mph tonight. Snow should begin falling around midnight with 4-8 inches at lake level and 8-12 inches above 7000 ft. by Wednesday night. Another wave brings another round of snow Wednesday night into Thursday and we double down to a total of 8-16 inches at lake level and 1-2 feet above 7000 ft. by Thursday evening.

From This Morning:

I started this blog to limit the number of weather questions I get from people on a daily basis when they see me. It’s funny because the people that know they will see me don’t bother to read the blog because they will ask me, but they still have a forecast they heard someplace else. Yesterday everyone was saying, “So just a rain storm on Wednesday huh?”. What??? You didn’t hear that here and that is in no way true.

I think it will be all snow even down to lake level (6200 ft), but just mentioned maybe a quick start with rain mixed in because snow levels could briefly start at 6000 ft. Either way this is a snow event and you will not get out of shoveling.

Not much change in the storm as the main low splits to our North tonight and the Southern piece comes in over Tahoe tomorrow. The heaviest snow will be during the morning and then snow showers in the afternoon. Then another wave of snow will move in Wednesday night into Thursday.

GFS & the EURO models are at odds on snow amounts especially with the second wave. The Euro shows .75-1 inches of total liquid and the GFS show 1.5-1.75. That is the difference between 9-12 inches and 18-24 inches.

Let’s continue down the middle with the same forecast as yesterday with 6-12 inches at lake level and 12-18 above 7000 ft. by Thursday afternoon. Up to 2 feet on the crest, but this is over a 36 hour period so the snowfall will not be that heavy. Maybe some better agreement on the models this afternoon.

More Later…….BA

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