For those of you throwing in the towel on Winter don’t forget it doesn’t even start for another 10 days.  Let’s not forget the six week drought last January and the first half of February.  All you probably remember about last season was the 800 inches we saw at the resorts along the crest.  You probably forget that in January Squaw only received 15 inches for the entire month at the summit.

If it doesn’t snow from November 20th (which was our last snow) until the middle of February, and we pick as much snow we did beyond mid-February last year, we will be well above average with over 500 inches on along the Crest.  Squaw was at 300 inches in mid-February and then ended up over 800 inches.

I’m not saying the Winter will last anywhere near as long as last year, but just making the point that you don’t give up on Winters in Tahoe until the Winter is over.  We saw 3 weeks last year where a month’s worth of snowfall fell in a week.  So we just need one of those weeks to start the new year.

The storm for this Thursday is trending East like every other storm this month, so we will really only see just more cold from this one.  Next week the models are all over the place which can sometimes be a sign that the pattern is changing and the models are struggling to catch onto the pattern.  It looks like the storms could pick up in the Pacific NW and one could sneak some light snow this way mid-week, but don’t hold your breathe.

As we go into the Winter beyond next week the East Asian jetstream partly responsible for pumping the Eastern Pacific ridge should begin the weaken.  That will allow the ridge to retrograde and the trough to build back into the Eastern Pacific.

Today’s Euro model suggested a ridge could build in near the Aleutians where the trough has been just after Christmas.  That can form a block that brings and holds a trough in the Eastern Pacific.  I will watch for more signs of that.  Until then hang in there, Winter will come.  BA

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