Heavier precip is now banking up along the Western side of the crest. We should see the steady snow spillover into the basin this evening. 12z Euro and 18z GFS have increased total liquid to 1.75-2 inches. That would suggest the higher end of the forecasted totals, and a better chance we could see some places on the crest hit 5 feet.
From This Morning:
The main low can be seen this morning on satellite spinning off the coast of Seattle with lots of cold air depicted by the popcorn shaped clouds. When you see that it means there is really cold air over the ocean picking up moisture off the relatively warmer water. On the South side of the circulation a moisture streak is being pulled into Northern CA from a stationary low and area of moisture in the Central Pacific. This is adding moisture to the air that blowing in from the West this morning and it’s beginning to cause light snow showers over the basin as it’s lifted by the mountains.
This kind of snow will stay light through this morning bringing a couple of inches until the the moisture streak moves further South this afternoon and the snowfall becomes heavier. By tonight the cold moist flow off the Pacific will be in full force with heavy snow and then even heavier snow tomorrow as the cold front moves through. The heavy snow will last through the day on Friday before lightening Friday night as the storm shifts South. With the very cold air in place there could still be significant accumulation Friday night. Then on Saturday snow showers in the morning may give way to the sun poking through by afternoon, very similar to last Saturday.
Looking at the models this morning the GFS has caught up now with the other models with an average of 1.5-1.75 inches of total liquid by Saturyday. That makes the NWS predictions too low because even at 15:1 snow ratios that is a minimum of 2 feet at lake level. We will have snow ratios averaging 20:1 at lake level into Saturday and 25:1 above 7000 ft.
I will break it down for you into 12 hour periods again like i like to do. At lake level: 3-6 today, 9-12 tonight, 9-12 tomorrow, 3-6 tomorrow night = 2-3 feet by Saturday. Above 7000 ft: 4-8 today, 14-18 tonight, 14-18 tomorrow, 4-8 tomorrow night = 3-4+ feet by Saturday. The higher amounts of course are on the West side of the lake and along the Western crest. We will have to wait until Sunday morning for the final totals as the snowshowers linger into Saturday.
Storm train still lined up next week to bring us more storms starting Wednesday. More on that after we get through this storm. Was I too low in October on my prediction of 125% of average snowfall for Tahoe this season? BA
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