This is what we have all been praying and dancing for over the past 6 weeks. All the hard work of washing your cars, putting away the snowblowers, and flushing ice down the toilet has paid off. (I just found out about that last one a couple weeks ago). It’s game time!
Resort Totals page has been updated and is ready to receive all the totals this week. As expected, over the past 24 hours resorts along the crest picked up 3-5 inches and resorts East of the crest only got a dusting. That will change tonight as everyone gets dumped on. I’m sure all you weather spotters can’t wait to send in totals finally either.
I told you Old Man Winter was angry and teaming up with La Nina for revenge. The winds were howling at my house so loud last night I had a hard time sleeping. I had a dream that the shingles ripped off the roof and when I went outside to walk the dog this morning I realized it wasn’t a dream. There were shingles all over the yard.
Not much change to the forecasted snow totals other than to start adding to them for Thursday and Friday. It’s easy to look at a total precip map for the week and say what the grand total will be, but the tricky part is trying to break it down so you know how much powder will be on the slopes each morning. So let’s break the storm down piece by piece.
Snow showers should increase this afternoon along the crest as the cold front moves closer. Looking for another 3-5 inches along the crest today. Then tonight the heavy precip arrives and spills over the crest into all areas. By tomorrow morning we could see 8-12 inches at lake level with 12-18 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 2 feet on along the crest. Then it continues to snow hard all day tomorrow with snowfall rates that could exceed 3 inches an hour, not a good day for traveling. By tomorrow night snow totals should be 1-2 feet at lake level with 2-3 feet above 7000 ft., and 3-4 feet along the crest. Remember along the crest that will be on top of the 6-10 inches they have by tonight.
The biggest 24 hour reported snowfall this season so far was at Sugar Bowl on the morning of 11/21 of 40 inches. The two day combined report for 11/20-11/21 was 64 inches. I’m thinking we will come in second place with this storm in the 45-55 inch range, but that is the bar that was set in November. The 5 day total for that week was 116 inches. We aren’t going anywhere near that this week.
Then we have very cold air in place with a moist and unstable atmosphere Wednesday night through Thursday. Snow showers will continue off and on especially on the mountains into Thursday night. We will have snow ratios of 15-20:1 at lake level and 20-30:1 above 7000 ft., so the snow showers will pile up quickly. We could pick up another 6-12+ inches by Friday morning bringing the totals to 1.5-2.5 feet at lake level with 2.5-4 feet above 7000 ft., and 4 day totals of 4-6 ft. along the crest.
Then there is another low that spins down the coast on Friday. Models still don’t have a handle on the exact track but the trend is to bring it closer to us. Friday into Saturday we could pick up another 6-12+ inches from this storm. 5 day totals could be around 2-3+ feet at lake level with 3-5 feet above 7000 ft., and 5-7 feet along the crest. This is going to be very light and powdery snow so you may want to break out the snorkels.
Take a deep breathe because unlike November and December the fun is going to last longer than a week. Next week the storms look smaller and cold as the ridge is a little closer and the storms come down the coast with less over water trajectory to pick up moisture. Then the following week going into the first week of March the pattern points to a possible redevelopment of the ridge further West. That would allow them to dig again and pick up more moisture. It looks like the storm door should stay open into the beginning of March.
Stay tuned for updates on the storm………BA
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